WTI Dropping -- Trade Wars Begin In Earnest -- April 4, 2018

Jobs: huge.

Will Trump's tariffs result in US manufacturing layoffs? Possibly. My hunch: Trump knows what he is doing. But Steve Liesman, et al, are all concerned too many folks are being hired (wage inflation and where are all those workers coming from?) so maybe Steve Liesman, et al, will welcome some job losses.

Jobs: private payrolls grow by 241,000 vs 205,000 forecast -- ADP. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$62.26↓↓	4/4/2018	04/04/2017	04/04/2016	04/04/2015	04/04/2014
Active Rigs	56	49	30	94	192

RBN Energy: western natural gas markets whack Rockies producers.

Wells coming off confidential list today: CLR with two huge wells (one well with almost 150K in three months); Whiting with a huge well; two more DUCs -- so, somewhere between 20 and 40% of all new wells coming off confidential are going to DUC status. Takes us back to the BTUAnalytics story.

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BTU Analytics Methodology

The wells being reported today:

• 33829: 0 bbls
• 32823: 127,203 bbls over 148 days; 859 bopd
• 32809: 26,816 bbls over 39 days; 688 bopd
• 32584: 144,789 bbls over 114 days; 1,270 bopd
• 31126: 0 bbls

Just the three producing wells without the DUCs:  298,808 bbls over 301 days = 992 bopd
With the DUCs (using only 30 days per DUC, which of course, begs the question) = 284 bopd

This makes me question whether BTU Analytics is accurate on the methodology.

I'm back to square one on this whole issue.