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Tuesday, April 10, 2018

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 2, T+41 -- April 10, 2018

Super-big news: China - North Korea - US have moved past the conversation whether North Korea should denuclearize. The parties have now moved to how to denuclearize North Korea. The negotiations / bargaining has begun. What will North Korea say it wants in exchange for denuking? North Korea will want unification of the Korean peninsula. All will agree that will be the goal. But it may take centuries. But that will be unsaid. In the meantime, negotiations for aid for North Korea will take priority.

WTI: I'm in a great mood. Sometime within the last five days -- I already forget the exact day -- I sold a  lot of losers to buy something else. My decision came down to AAPL vs RDS-B. I won't go through all the pros and cons now, but I ended up going with RDS-B. I love Royal Dutch Shell's strategic plan to become a wind/solar energy company. LOL.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Politics: Trump continues to win. His polls will likely improve this week or next.

#BlackLivesMatter is gradually morphing into #BlackLiesMatter.

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Back to the Bakken

This data will not be updated. I track the Monroe wells elsewhere. This is huge, huge news. Look at these wells (commentary follows):
  • 22891, IA/947, CLR, Monroe 1-2H, 35 stages,  3.3 million lbs, t8/12; cum 296K 10/16;
  • 30253, 3,225, CLR, Monroe 6-2H, Banks, 4 sections, a huge well; first two full months, 50K+; 150K in first three months; from a November 4, 2016, sundry form -- "CLR .... requests a waiver to plug and reclaim an abandoned well ... the well will be completed once commodity prices improve ..." Spud August 15, 2015; reached KOP on August 18, 2015; KOP curve drilled in 36 hours; wellbore landed 18' into the middle Bakken; the rig was then skid over to the Monroe 7-2H; background gas averaged 600 units; a high formation gas of 1106 units was observed when traversing the upper Bakken shale; the 13,537' long lateral began drilling on October 17, 2015; reached TD on October 23, 2015; 78 stages; 11 million lbs; "... plug & perf completion; 15% 100-mesh & 85% (40/70) natural white sand; t10/17; cum 243K 2/18;
  • 30251, 2,313, CLR, Monroe 7-2H, Banks, 4 sections, 78 stages; 16.6 million lbs, unspecified mix of mesh and 40/70, a huge well; two of first three months, close to 50K+/month; about 130K first three months; t10/17; cum 200K 2/18;
  • 30254, 1,302, CLR, Monroe 8-2H, Banks, 4 sections, 53 stages; 10.7 million lbs, 28% mesh/72% 40/70; t1/18; cum 15K 2/18;
  • 30252, 1,823, CLR, Monroe 9-2H, Banks, 4 sections, 53 stages; 16.2 million lbs; 19% mesh & 81% 40/70; t1/18; cum 30K 2/18;
  • 33098, SI/NC, -->1,858, CLR, Monroe 10-2H1, Banks, 4 sections, Three Forks B1, 82 stages; 10.6 million lbs; "plug and perf completion; pump 25% 100-mesh & 75% (40/70) natural white sand, started off slow, but 45K in fifth month; t10/17; cum 101K 2/18;
  • 33097, 1,594, CLR, Monroe 11-2H1, Banks, 4 sections, Three Forks B1; 82 stages; 16.5 million lbs; "... 12 toe stages with ball & sleeve then 70 stages utilizing plug & perf with unspecified mix of mesh and 40/70 sand, t10/17; cum 72K 2/18;
Commentary, for newbies:
  • Bakken 1.0: began in the summer of 2007; it was originally tagged "Bakken101" and I continue to use the "Bakken101" tag 
  • Bakken 2.0: October 19, 2016
  • Bakken 2.5: April 10, 2018 -- correlates/corresponds with CLR's new completion strategies; North Dakota crude oil production to set new records; increased focus on the Permian vs the Bakken
  • CLR's new completion strategies:
  • still being worked out
  • the amount of sand/number of stages individualized not only for a specific formation (middle Bakken, Three Forks B1, Three Forks B2) but also for each individual well
  • my hunch is that the amount of sand -- not necessarily the number of stages -- also factors in "halo" effect of neighboring wells
  • note reference to "toe stages" in #33097 above; wow, we must have talked about "toe stages" six years ago in the blog; now we're seeing operators talk about it in their completion strategies; interesting
  • CLR is also helping readers like me out by breaking down the percentage of mesh/type of sand/ceramic used in each frack; this is much appreciated; it's a big help for their geologists and for the CEO and board of directors; Mike Filloon should love it
  • if others see something else in CLR's completion strategies, please let me know

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