The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+35 -- April 3, 2018

#TweetsMatter: this is really, really cool. The other day, maybe yesterday, I suggested that President Trump had a lot of arrows in his quiver if Mexico did not do something about the "caravan" headed for our southern border. Today, it is being reported that the Mexican government said they will disband the caravan by Wednesday in  Oaxaca. The most vulnerable will be give humanitarian visas. Obviously, President Trump's tweets worked, along with telephone threats to shut down the US embassy in Mexico City. This is not rocket science. Rumors are that when CNN asked former President Barack Obama what he would have done, Mr Obama was reported to have said: "Well, ummm, yes, ... I wouldn't have been put in that position in the first place ... but as you know, Michelle was getting ready for her vegetable garden .. and the ... ummm, caravan ... well, let's just say that, I would have been on the phone ... I'm not a tweeter ... I'm a ... ummm .. but to the question, what I would have done. I would have drawn a line in the sand at the US border in Laredo .. or El Paso ... or Brownsville ... hey, did you see see the men's basketball tournament last night? My bracket was almost !00% correct."

Sticky wicket: this story reminds me of a similar Chesapeake story about ten years ago. Now it's CLR and the state of ND. From The Bismarck Tribune:

A North Dakota state agency that claims some oil companies have improperly taken deductions from oil and gas royalty payments is defending itself against two lawsuits that will be closely watched by the industry.

Continental Resources, one of several companies the North Dakota Department of Trust Lands says has underpaid royalties to the state, is challenging the department and the Board of University and School Lands in McKenzie County District Court.

The dispute — potentially involving millions of dollars industry-wide — stems from an audit the department conducted that showed some oil companies had underpaid the state by taking improper deductions for transportation, processing and other costs from royalty payments

Tesla shares up a couple of bucks: apparently all that concern about Tesla has ended. For Tesla, the numbers and Bloomberg's "live blog" at this link:

• It does seem, given 9,766 units produced vs. our 12,500 model, that production ramped later in the quarter than we expected. Our hope is that, taking management commentary at face value, subsequent ramps in production may be easier relative to prior quarters.
• So let's unpack the total production rate of 9,766 for the quarter. First, if you step back a bit to what Tesla was planning for when the car launched last year, these are awful numbers. At one point Musk said he thought the company could make more than 100,000 cars in 2017 finishing at a rate of 5,000/week. That was pushed back and pushed back again. 
• TSLA: up 0.87% ($2.74) after the numbers released; trading at $255. 
• Later: after the "very positive CNBC report, shares of TSLA jumped; now up over 3% ($7.75) -- but then again, the entire market is up

Tesla: another executive move -- it has just been announced that Tesla's Model S&X Program Manager has recently left Tesla to head up VW's North American electric car rollout. Wow!

EV sales: some March sales data will be out later today; the rest tomorrow. 

Ford sales: link over at SeekingAlpha -- Ford unit sales +3.4% to 244,306 in March to top the estimate from Edmunds for a 2.8% gain.

• passenger car sales -8.1% to 52,635 units
• SUV sales +7.5% to 82,395 units, including a 19% gain Edge sales
• truck sales +6.7% to 109,276 units. F-Series sales +7.0% to 87,011 units
• YTD U.S. sales -2.9% to 599,581 units
• Ford's sales wrap: "We saw incredible demand for our trucks and SUVs, selling over 87,000 F-Series pickups. Ford brand SUVs established a new sales record in March. 
• Demand for our all-new Lincoln Navigator is off the charts, with some customers buying the SUV sight unseen."
• Sort of like buying the Tesla sight-unseen: the only difference -- one actually gets the Lincoln Navigator the same year the customer orders it

GM: announced today it will no longer report monthly sales to the general public; whether data is being reported to the government is still a bit murky