Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #34 -- March 26, 2018

I'm sure, by now, everyone has seen this story from BloombergPolitics (note: politics, not business):

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has concluded that a landmark Obama-era effort to cut vehicle greenhouse-gas emissions is too aggressive and agrees with automakers that the standards should be revised, according to people familiar with the matter.

The agency has completed a draft decision outlining the rationale for easing fuel efficiency regulations for model-year 2022-2025 cars and light trucks, two people said. Bill Wehrum, chief of the agency’s Office of Air and Radiation, plans to meet with environmental regulators in California next week to discuss the draft determination ahead of an April 1 deadline to make it public, according to the people.

California? The 800-pound tailpipe gorilla:

The California Air Resources Board is troubled by reports of the EPA’s decision.

“California paved the way for a single national program and is fully committed to maintaining it,” [a California regulator] said. “This rumored finding -- if official -- places that program in jeopardy. We feel strongly that weakening the program will waste fuel, increase emissions, and cost consumers more money.”

Back on July 19, 2016, almost two years ago, I posted this one-line: The new standards (2022 - 2025) will be hammered out starting in 2018.

And here it is, 2018, and the new standards are being hammered out.

Back to the linked story above.

My "not-ready-for-prime-time" reply to Don who sent me the link (this is one of my really, really poor replies, but it is what it is. I will let the editors clean up the reply later.):

This will be epic.

If California refuses to play along, auto makers will have to make a decision. Either:

a) two markets - the California market and the rest of the US; or,

b) ignore the California market

US auto makers won't have the guts to ignore the California market but it would be great to call California's bluff. My hunch is that if automakers refused to meet California's stricter requirements and didn't sell new vehicles there that didn't meet standards, Californians would go nuts; demand their state government relax the standards.

I don't know. But this is going to be an epic battle: the EPA against California.

California also has time on its side. California knows that Trump is "one and done." In 2020, a Democratic president, and a new EPA. California can easily drag this out for a couple of years.

I really have trouble seeing California blink on on this one.

Meanwhile, auto manufacturers are in a tough position. Do they strategize to take advantage of "new" rules, or do they strategize to prepare for California?

My hunch: California could compromise by delaying new rules for one or two years, but at the end of the day, I think California holds the better hand -- simply because the state is so far left.

It's going to be interesting to watch.

For other posts on CAFE standards, there is tag at the bottom of the blog: CAFE_standards.

By the way, Trump needs to change the name of the name of the EPA to the "PEA, the Political Environmental Agency."

The Little Old Lady From Pasadena, Jan and Dean

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Notes to the Granddaughters

I consider myself incredibly fortunate to have been able to spend four of the best years of my life in southern California: living in a spacious apartment -- more a "house" than an apartment -- in South Pasadena, just a few blocks from Colorado Boulevard.

Wow, the stories I could tell, including the evening I spent with two young men who catered parties for Hugh Hefner -- yes, that Hefner. I was given the opportunity to be part of the catering party but the "conditions" were more than I could accept. A missed opportunity? I will never know but my hunch is my life would have turned out a whole lot differently.

I had driven pretty much non-stop from North Dakota to Los Angeles (Highland Park) in a brand new muscle car, a Chevy Nova, a gift from my dad. My last stop before driving into Los Angeles was somewhere in the high desert where I slept in the car overnight. Stepping out of the car the next morning, I noticed a rattlesnake under the car. In hindsight, an omen.

I drove into Highland Park, to the apartment my future roommate had found. While filling up with gasoline, a man about my age, perhaps in his early 20's, saw my North Dakota license plate, introduced himself saying he was from Fargo (ND), and invited me over to his house that evening.

It was an incredible evening learning about southern California. I was fortunate that it was only an evening of talking. Visions of Jeffrey Dahmer come to mind.