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Tuesday, March 13, 2018

The Market And Energy Page, T+13 -- March 13, 2018; North Dakota Crude Oil -- Still Over One Million BOPD -- Director's Cut Is Posted; January, 2018, Data

We start with global warming:


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Could WTI Slip Below $60 Today?

At $60.66 right now, it's very possible we could get close to $60 this afternoon after API crude oil inventory data is released.
Don't Go Breaking My Heart, Elton John & Kiki Dee

Whoo-hoo!

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The Director's Cut
January, 2018, Data

Link here. NDIC site for calendar and links for past and current Director Cuts here.

The usual disclaimer applies. I do "this" quickly and there will be typographical and factual errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Natural gas production: in April, 2017, it was reported that North Dakota produced a record amount of natural gas: in that month, natural gas production jumped 6% to more than 1.8 billion cubic feet / day. What was North Dakota's natural gas production two months ago, January, 20178? It dropped slightly from December, 2017, which was the all-time high to date. Most recent data: 2,068,244 MCF/day vs 2,084,925 MCF/day in December, 2017.


Oil production
  • January, 2018: 1,175,638 bopd
  • December, 2017: 1,181,319 bopd
  • Delta:  a decrease of 7,198 bbls / day
  • Delta: a decrease of 0.6% (a revision when data presented next month could show an increase)
Gas production: 2,068,244 MCF/day vs 2,084,925 MCF/day in December, 2017

Producing wells:
  • January, 2018: 14,313 (all-time high was 14,338 in December, 2017)
  • December, 2017: 14,338
  • Delta: a decrease of 25 wells; about a 0.2% decrease (if revised when data comes out next month, then I think we might see another all-time high, as well as an increase in total crude oil production as well as natural gas production)
Permitting
  • February, 2018: 96
  • January, 2018: 106
  • December, 2017: 86
  • November, 2017: 119
  • October, 2017: 147 
  • September, 2017: 104
  • August, 2017: 101
  • July, 2017: 146 (huge jump)
Oil price (WTI), breakeven price statewide = $21
  • Today: $49.25 (it's hard to believe that the all-time high was $136.29 on 7/3/2008)
  • February, 2018: $50.98
  • January, 2018: $54.75
  • December, 2017: $49.56
  • November: $49.75
  • October: $43.56
  • September: $39.56
  • August: $37.93
  • July: $35.83
Rig count:
  • today: 59
  • February, 2018: 57
  • January, 2018: 56
  • December: 52
  • November: 54
  • October: 56
  • September: 56
  • August: 56
  • July: 58
  • June: 55
Wells not producing, total: about 2,407 (up from 2,346 last month not producing; that exceeds the number of wells completed in any year during the boom)
  • waiting on completion: 853, down 24 from the end of December to the end of January 
  • estimated inactive well count: 1,554, up 85 from the end of December to the end of January
Takeaway capacity:
  • January, 2018: takeaway capacity including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate 
  • November: takeaway capacity including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate
  • October data: including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate
  • September data: including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate
  • August data: including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate
  • July data: including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate
  • June data: including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate
  • May data: including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate (major change in verbiage)
Natural gas capture, has been getting "worse" and FBIR was a major issue; the trend improved a few months ago but it looks like this is still a challenge
  • statewide: 85% (previous -- 87% [trend pretty much flat, disappointing for some])
  • FBIR: 81% (previous: 80%)
  • goal: 88% through October 31, 2020; then 91%
  • comment: October, 2017, was terrible; it's getting better on FBIR

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