So Much For All That Talk That A "Trade War" Would Kill Oil Prices And The Equity Market -- March 5, 2018

Making America great again: heavy-duty truck orders soared 76% in February. Analysts raise production targets for the year (and this is only February data) as strong shipping demand boosts outlook for truck makers. Seventy-six percent rounded up is one-hundred percent, and a one-hundred percent increase in anything is a "doubling." We've talked about this a number of times in the past few months. From The WSJ:

North American fleet owners last month ordered 40,200 Class 8 trucks, the vehicles used to haul goods long distances, a 76% jump compared to the same month in 2017, according to preliminary figures from freight analysts FTR.

Trucking companies that held back on deciding whether to upgrade or expand fleets in the fall, as freight demand accelerated, now are racing to reserve slots on production lines. Truck orders hit a nearly 12-year high in January, when freight prices soared as shippers scrambled to find capacity amid the tightest trucking market in years.

Fake news: I guess folks didn't believe the news that a 10% tariff aluminum would kill off aluminum-wrapped Hershey's Kisses and Life-Savers (or perhaps they know Congress will thwart Trump's plans).

The anticipated four "Fed" rate increases will have a bigger effect on the equity market than the cost of aluminum foil wrapping Hershey Kisses. Beer? The cost of aluminum in an aluminum can? Half a cent. Price for a 12-ounce can of beer: $1.50+ (north Texas, 6-pack, neighborhood stores)

The latest GDP forecast for 1Q17 jumped from 2.6% to 3.5%. Previously posted.

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Back to the Bakken

"Arctive" rigs:

$62.61↑↑	3/5/2018	03/05/2017	03/05/2016	03/05/2015	03/05/2014
Active Rigs	61	45	35	113	192

Four new permits:

• Operators: WPX (3): Eagle Operating
• Fields: Spotted Horn (McKenzie); Wildcat (Renville)
• Comments: Eagle Operating's wildcat is Popinga 32-16, a vertical well; a Madison well; back in 1990 a dry well was drilled in this same section; Eagle Operating has another "location" in the section immediately to the north;

No permits renewed.

No permits canceled.

No producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed.

That's all.

State employees were released at 3:00 p.m. due to Arctic storm bearing down on north-central US.