Random Look At Two Slawson Wells -- Part III -- March 23, 2018

Disclaimer: in a long note like this one, as well as the long notes in Part I and Part II, there will be typographical and factual errors. Facts, comments, and opinions are interspersed and hard to separate or discern. There are a lot of digressions. There is no hidden agenda and no "fake news" -- at least no attempt to post "fake news." I appreciate any fact checking. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Part I here.

Part II here.

The wells under discussion:

• 19207, 613, Slawson, Vagabond 1-27H, Van Hook, t4/11; cum 358K 1/18;
• 19208, 800, Slawson, Water Moccasin 4-34-TFH, Van Hook, t4/11; cum 324K 1/18;

The graphics:

Comments:

• the two wells under discussion would be very inexpensive to drill / complete today (using same amount of sand)
• they were short laterals
• they used small amounts of sand
• the two wells were mediocre at best when originally drilled
• neighboring wells drilled / completed -- these wells went from mediocre to pretty good wells
• data suggests these wells are great candidates for mini-re-fracks and full re-fracks at a later date
• it's impossible to say whether new wells are "compromising" production from older wells, but in this case, it certainly appears the newer wells had a positive effect on the older, shorter laterals; whether or not new wells are "compromising" older wells across the Bakken is hard to tell; analysts much smarter than I suggest that this is happening
• there are 7 horizontal wells in this 1280-acre unit (technically 7.5) and only the middle Bakken and the upper bench of the Three Forks have been targeted
• it's not a stretch to suggest:
• six middle Bakken horizontals
• six TF 1 horizontals
• four TF 2 horizontals
• four TF 3 horizontals
• two TF 4 horizontals
• total: 22 horizontals
• 32-well arrays have been discussed before (see tag at bottom of blog)
• some suggest we could see eight middle Bakken and eight TF 1 and eight TF 3 horizontals in the same spacing, or 24 wells, which does not include TF 2 or TF 4 horizontals
• new wells in spacing units (held by production) require no new leasing; most infrastructure is already in place; geologists can practically forecast likely production for new wells

Bottom line:

• two Bakken wells
• 58,998 more Bakken wells before it's all over

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. Some analysts suggest the Bakken is pretty much "done."