February Jobs Report -- March 9, 2018

And more:

 

February jobs report: Wow.

• trade war? what trade war?
• forecast: 200,000
• actual: 313,000
• unemployment: remains at 4.1%
• wage growth less than expected: rising 0.1% (month); 2.6% (annualized) -- huge news for those worried about wage inflation
• last month stocks sold off "aggressively" after January's payrolls reported wage inflation of 2.8 percent annually -- the biggest gain since June, 2009
• unemployment rate was last this low in December, 2000

Optics: in one graphic, and a few links, the Drudge Report does more to "paint the picture" than all the articles; no wonder "everyone" likes Drudge -- except the alt-left and the FCC.

What to watch for: WSJ.

• unemployment rate could drop to 4.0%; I find this statistic incredibly unimportant in today's employment report
• job-growth trend: an incredibly important metric

Economists expect employers added at least 200,000 workers to payrolls for the second straight month (and fourth month in the past five). That would start off 2018 at a better hiring pace than last year’s average monthly job growth of 181,000. An acceleration in hiring runs counter to economists’ expectation for job gains to ease in a historically tight labor market.

• wages wind back: and they did -- a bit
• work force participation: more important then the unemployment rate
• volatility in certain sectors, due to small sample size, for example, black unemployment

Blink, C-in-C:

"Arctic" rigs:

$60.63↑	3/9/2018	03/09/2017	03/09/2016	03/09/2015	03/09/2014
Active Rigs	59	43	33	114	191

RBN Energy: how a refiner bet on accessible American crude, and lost.

When Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES), owner of the East Coast’s largest refinery, recently announced it was seeking Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, it begged a question: What happened? The answer requires a look back at the company’s original vision — namely, to capture the upside of the Shale Revolution by processing price-advantaged light, sweet crude oil produced in the U.S. — as well as a review of market developments that undermined its plan.

Today, we look at the factors that drove PES’s hopes and why, in the end, they weren’t realized. PES was formed as a partnership in September 2012 between The Carlyle Group and Sunoco Inc. to rescue the 335-Mb/d Philadelphia Refining Complex. Carlyle would hold a two-thirds ownership interest while Sunoco Inc. (which bought the complex’s Point Breeze refinery in 1988 and its Girard Point refinery in 1994) retained ownership of the remaining third. Just after the PES partnership was launched, in October 2012, Sunoco became a subsidiary of Energy Transfer Partners.