Update On Another "Never-Ending" Story -- The Saudi Aramco IPO -- February 19, 2018

I don't track the IPO in any particular place yet, but there is a tag, SaudiAramcoIPO.

I've stated many times, there is a continuum with regard to the IPO, from the far left (it won't happen at all) to the far right (it will be an incredible success, listing on the NYSE, and over-subscribed, with Warren Buffett buying as much as he is allowed).

I tend to rest along the continuum near the left, that the IPO won't happen at all. The tea leaves suggest that, at best, the IPO might be listed only on the Riyadh bourse, as they say, watered-down and with very strict investing rules. In fact, googling Riyadh bourse today brings up this as the first hit:

• Saudi bourse adjusts rules to attract foreign funds, ease Aramco IPO, dated January 10, 2018

Then, the second one:

• Saudi Aramco's IPO is a mess, my kingdom for a horse, October 19, 2017

And then the third hit:

• Saudis weigh sole listing of Saudi Aramco shares on Riyadh stock exchange, February 18, 2018 (yesterday)

And when do analyst think the listing could occur? It could be years from now, in today's news. For it to be listed on the NYSE, the Kingdom is going to have to be a lot more transparent about its holdings and its operations. There is one particularly questionable data point: year after year after year -- perhaps decades -- the Saudis have never officially changed their recoverable reserves estimates. At least I read that once upon a time.

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A Fixer-Upper At The North End Of Main Street

Grapevine, Texas