Putting The Bakken Into Perspective -- Update On "The World's Largest Oil Discovery In The Last 30 Years" -- February 19, 2018

Time to update "the world's largest [oil] discovery in the last 30 years" -- according to wiki.

The "never-ending" story is followed here. 

Kashagan oil field production to increase by 33% in 2018, according to Kazakhstan's oil ministry. The country (Kazakhstan) says the giant oilfield will produce 13 million tonnes, or 260,000 bopd in 2018. That was announced September 7, 2017. But nine months earlier, January 11, 2017, the oil ministry said the Kashagan would produce at its capacity of 370,000 bopd.

The Kashagan missed forecasts for 2017:

A unit of Kazakhstan’s third-biggest oil producer, KazMunaiGas, said in September that the oilfield will produce 270,000 barrels per day in the last quarter of this year.

That forecast was lower than that given by Energy Minister Kanat Bozumbayev, who said the field would increase production to 300,000-370,000 bpd by the end of this year from the 200,000 bpd currently.

Back-of-the-envelope:

• 1.33x = 260,000
• x = 195,000 bopd

Back in 2015, operators hoped to reach production of 300,000 bopd. Maximum production for Phase 1 is estimated at 370,000 bopd. Phase 2 would move production upwards of one million bopd but there has been no time line set for Phase 2.

The Wall Street Journal has a photo-essay titled "The Kashagan Debacle." I couldn't find the date of this article, but the small print says it was copyrighted 2018 (i.e., this year).

Key data points for the Kashagan:

• under $100/bbl, the companies running the North Caspian Consortium will incur losses
• it is estimated that production costs along exceed $50 / bbl
• the oil is a light oil (45 API) but is incredibly corrosive with a hydrogen sulfide content of 19% [see comment below; this has been moved up here for easier access; from a reader:
  Correct me if I'm wrong, but 19% H2S is 190,000 ppm. 1,000 to 1,200 ppm will kill you instantly.] And also incredibly corrosive to equipment.
• the field is heavily overpressurized which presents a significant drilling challenge
• OOIP, general consensus: 38 billion bbls
• recovery factor said to be relatively low (15 - 25%) due to reservoir complexity
• ultimate recoverable resources: 4 - 14 billion bbls