North Dakota Natural Gas Production Is Again Becoming An Issue For The State -- February 20, 2018

Updates

February 21, 2018: see first comment.

Original Post

 

A reader sent me this story (thank you, again). I was not going to post it -- it sounded a bit "excessive," shall we say? A little bit of hyperbole? I thought maybe the writer mis-heard or mis-wrote.

The lede in This Williston Herald story:

North Dakota’s oil and gas industry has invested more than $13 billion in gas gathering and processing infrastructure to date, but it needs at least another $11 billion to meet the state’s more stringent gas capture targets that begin in November.

I replied that I must be missing something because the most recent Director's Cut seems to suggest North Dakota is close to the target, and the most recent data is December, 2017, data. We still have almost a year to go (the more stringent target goes into effect in November, 2018) -- from the most recent Director's Cut, with December, 2018, data:

• statewide: 87% (previous -- 86% [trend has improved)
• FBIR: 80% (much improved; previous -- 75%) 
• 88% target becomes effective November, 2018
• 88% through October 31, 2020; then 91%

At 87%, the state is very close to the 88% target.

But then look at that second paragraph in the linked story:

So far, an additional 800 mcf of gathering and processing capacity has been proposed for 2018 and 2019, but these are not nearly enough to get there, according to projections by North Dakota Pipeline Authority Justin Kringstad.

I assume the "800 mcf" is 800 million cubic feet because 800,000 cubic feet would make no sense. Crestwood, for example, announced one December 6, 2017, that it was commissioning Phase 1 of the Bear Den natural gas processing plan in Watford City, which would add another 30 million cf/d. 

But having thought it through and looking at this graphic from the NDIC site, I thought it was a great story to post. North Dakota is producing about 2.1 billion cubic day:

But I still find that absolutely incredible:

• already, $13 billion in natural gas gathering and processing, and, yet,
• another $11 billion in more natural gas gathering and processing needed
• the time-frame was not stated

The writer wondered whether there might be a possibility of a "cracker" somewhere in the state. Some links regarding crackers:

• massive ethane cracker, Shell, Pennsylvania
• ethane / ethylene crackers along the gulf coast