EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook -- February 6, 2018

Key points:

• $62/bbl is not going to help Saudi Arabia; projected price for Brent crude oil through 2019
• US coal production remains stable, slightly greater than 2016
• natural gas is poised to set a record annual increase and record production level in 2018

EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook

Oil markets:

• EIA’s forecast expects Brent crude oil prices to be in the $62 per barrel range in 2018 and 2019.
• that’s down a bit from current levels, as strong U.S. production growth is expected to help moderate global prices
• after exceeding 10 million barrels per day last November, a first since 1970, EIA estimates U.S. crude oil climbed to 10.1 million barrels per day in January, which would be the highest for any month on record.
• February’s short-term outlook revises the forecast for increased oil production over the next two years
• we now expect U.S. crude oil production to average 10.6 million barrels per day in 2018 and 11.2 million barrels per day in 2019

Natural gas:

• cold weather east of the Rocky Mountains last month pushed natural gas inventory withdrawals to a record high and contributed to sharp increases in natural gas spot prices, which rose more than one dollar from December’s price to $3.88 per million British thermal units in January.
• natural gas is poised to set a record annual increase and record production level in 2018
• EIA expects a production increase of 6.7 billion cubic feet per day in 2018, climbing from 73.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2017 to more than 80 billion cubic feet per day
• growth from 2018 to 2019 is forecast to be lower but will remain close to 3% year-over-year.
• record natural gas production in the coming months should allow prices to pull back from January’s highs
• February’s short-term outlook expects production increases to continue through 2019 and, accordingly, we should see natural gas spot prices continue declining to an average of about $3.20 per million British thermal units this year and even further to $3.08 per million Btu in 2019.

Electricity:

• the fuel mix for utility-scale electricity generation is forecast to shift incrementally in 2018 and 2019
• EIA expects decreasing natural gas prices to push the fuel’s share of utility-scale generation up, from 32% in 2017 to 34% by 2019 
• as utility-scale generation from natural gas increases, the short-term outlook expects coal’s share to decrease from 30% in 2017 to 29% in 2019—keeping natural gas as the primary source for U.S. electricity generation over the next two years

Coal:

• the February short-term outlook maintains EIA’s forecast for reduced U.S. coal production in 2018, falling by 2%
• EIA expects this year’s coal production levels to continue in 2019 
• EIA forecasts production in 2018 and 2019 to hover near 760 million short tons, which is still above 2016’s production level of 728 million short tons

Renewables:

• EIA’s forecast expects wind to generate about 6% of total U.S. electricity in 2018 and 7% in 2019
• depending on weather conditions, it is likely that wind will, for the first time on an annual basis, overtake hydropower, as the largest source of renewable electricity in 2019 [overtaking hydropower is a pretty low bar]