Another Random Look At A Strange Phenomenon In The Bakken -- February 26, 2018

Updates

September 15, 2018: checked FracFocus again; no data to suggest this well was re-fracked; see this post. 

March 26, 2018: production data updated --

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	20892	21118	15042	38788	36902	1638
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	26355	26214	23359	46285	44411	1627
BAKKEN	11-2017	3	2548	1923	1433	3207	2656	534
BAKKEN	10-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Original Post 

Wow, wow, wow, take a look at this post and then the production update below.

FracFocus has no data that this well has been re-fracked.

From the linked post above: "So, now, pick another horizontal. Let's pick #19397."

• 19397, 417, CLR, Buelingo 1-20H, Elm Tree, t3/11; cum 309K 7/18; (note, it's even started flaring again):

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2017	3	2548	1923	1433	3207	2656	534
BAKKEN	10-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2017	0	0	210	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	22	724	713	180	1470	1226	70
BAKKEN	1-2017	31	1129	1202	445	2163	1822	93
BAKKEN	12-2016	30	1440	1213	441	2228	1946	51
BAKKEN	11-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2016	26	1884	2069	363	3539	3261	78

I selected that well simply because of its location near wells that had been recently fracked (see its location at the graphic at the linked post above).

As of November, 2017, it was too early to say what would happen but considering that the well produced more oil in 3 days than it had produced in 30 days prior to being taken off-line was quite interesting.

So, here we go. We now have another month of data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	26355	26214	23359	46285	44411	1627
BAKKEN	11-2017	3	2548	1923	1433	3207	2656	534
BAKKEN	10-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

When I see a production number like this (26,355 bbls in one month) I can only assume the well was fracked or re-fracked. In this case, FracFocus has no data that this well was fracked; there are no sundry forms in the file report suggesting this well has been re-fracked.

Interestingly enough, this well didn't even produce this much oil when it was initially fracked:

BAKKEN	9-2011	21	4451	4515	812	4875	4875	0
BAKKEN	8-2011	31	5873	5770	1030	8056	8056	0
BAKKEN	7-2011	31	6288	6396	1185	8219	7569	650
BAKKEN	6-2011	30	6665	6910	1228	8587	4717	3870
BAKKEN	5-2011	31	7441	7656	1395	10249	9524	725
BAKKEN	4-2011	30	8927	8747	1997	11586	8049	3537
BAKKEN	3-2011	30	14026	13414	4701	17110	0	17110

I'm not saying this well was not refracked but I haven't seen any sundry form or FracFocus data to suggest it wasn't. But if it wasn't, this is quite stunning. The next question, of course, is how sharp the decline will be.