1Q18 GDP Now Forecast To Be 4.0% -- February 12, 2019

Latest forecast: 4.0 percent — February 9, 2018. Link here.

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2018 is 4.0 percent on February 9, unchanged from February 6.

The nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth inched down from 1.25 percentage points to 1.24 percentage points after this morning's wholesale trade release by the U.S. Census Bureau.

It may be unchanged from February 6, but it has come down a long way since the February 1, 2018, forecast, when it was a staggering 5.4%.

*******************************

The Tesla Page

You may want to archive this article:  Tesla Model Y: Factory Site, Timing Of Production, And Competitive Landscape. See how things work out. Everything suggests we are coming to an inflection point.

Another article to archive, which suggests, also, a coming inflection point:

• Tesla Model 3 targets hinge on battery assembly system stuck in Germany.
• 2,500 cars per week Q1 target requires a new assembly line, but it's nowhere near Tesla's Gigafactory. 

And finally this one. This one is the least of the three -- glossing over the negatives: long on Tesla.

Updates

Later, 3:05 p.m. CT: from the Financial Times --

BMW is on the verge of signing a landmark deal for the long-term supply of battery metals lithium and cobalt, as it moves to secure raw materials for its push into electric vehicles over the next decade. 

The German carmaker, which has been an early mover among established manufacturers in embracing electrification, said the contracts will guarantee supply for the next five to 10 years. 

Last year BMW’s competitor Volkswagen launched a tender for five years supply of cobalt and invited suppliers to its headquarters in Wolfsburg. Discussions are understood to be ongoing with suppliers of the metal. 

The price of cobalt and lithium have more than doubled over the past year due to rising sales of electric vehicles, which topped 1.2m in 2017. [The spokesman] would not reveal the names of the suppliers or the total volumes involved. 

He said the total amount will be “far below” the 100,000 tonnes of cobalt suggested in German media — an amount that would be more than the entire output of the refined cobalt market last year 

Original Post 

Lithium: not good news for Tesla. China's lithium exports surging due to EV demand. This is not Tesla buying this lithium -- it's all those competitors.

Japan was by far the largest importer, taking 12,021t, a rise of 272pc on 2016 and accounting for 62pc of China's total exports. South Korea imported 3,800t in 2017, up by 29pc year on year, and Germany imported 874t, up by 24pc from 2016.