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Monday, January 29, 2018

Reminder: Bakken Prices Here

Link here.

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Texas Bullet Train

This is pretty cool. I think it's pretty well agreed that a bullet train from "Los Angeles" (wherever that is) to San Francisco makes absolutely no sense and will be incredibly costly for the legal, tax-paying residents of the Golden State.

On the other hand, a bullet train from Dallas (mostly likely DFW) to Houston (most likely George Bush Intercontinental Airport) makes eminent sense.

On top of everything else, the California bullet train's obstacles include:
  • dozens of cities that will stand in the way of the bullet train
  • huge costs associated with drilling through the mountains just north/northwest of Los Angeles
  • earthquake- prone geology
  • huge budgetary problems
On the other hand, for Texas:
  • very few cities stand between DFW and Bush to slow the train down
  • absolutely flat, easily-developed geology; no mountains; no large rivers
  • no earthquakes
  • no budgetary problems (yet)
So, where does Texas stand?

The "Feds" have picked the preferred route for the Dallas-to-Houston train. That was back in December, 2017. On the radio this morning, it was announced that the public-comment meetings are starting to be scheduled; I believe there are something like four public-comment meetings are required. (The linked site says there will be ten public hearings.)


Compared to the California bullet train, the DFW - GBIA should be a slam dunk.

The California bullet train is decades from reality and right now is estimated to cost upwards of $70 billion.

The Texas bullet train could be operational by 2023 and is estimated to cost less than $12 billion. the trip from LA to SF is estimated to take a little less than three (3) hours (my hunch is that this is grossly exaggerated; safety issues will require that the train slow down in many towns and cities along the route).

On the other hand, the time from DFW to GBIA is estimated to take 90 minutes.

On top of all this, compared to driving to LAX it is incredibly easy to drive to DFW and getting easier all the time. Texas is staying ahead of traffic congestion on the north side of DFW. The commute to LAX will easily add another hour to one's commute to SF, whereas the commute to DFW would be measured in minutes from the north side of DFW.

In a litigious state like California, it's hard to believe the California bullet train won't be renamed the California Keystone XL. With Trump's emphasis on infrastructure, the timing of the Texas bullet train seems more fortuitous.

I won't be alive to see the California bullet train (nor will Governor Moonbeam) but it is very likely that I will be taking the Texas bullet train before I am too old to do my own investing.

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