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Thursday, January 4, 2018

Huge! US Crude Oil Inventories Decrease 7.4 Million Bbls -- January 4, 2018; Huge Increase In Distillate Fuel Production (Not Surprising); Billings Exxon Refinery Remains Shut Down

Updates

Later, 12:25 p.m. CT: see first comment --
I am surprised that there has been no mention of the Billings Exxon refinery being shut down due to an internal plant malfunction,around October 25th, disrupting power from the dedicated coke burning power plant next door and necessitating shut down of the entire refining operations.
This refinery normally produces around 62,000 b/d of diesel and other distillates.
Original Post

Pardon the interruption: At this point, 10:18 a.m. CT, it might be interesting to start following ISO New England. Normally by this time of the day, one does not see a spike in electricity demand -- but right now demand and price is spiking, apparently coinciding with Winter Storm Grayson moving into New England. Renewables are actually holding in there (which is a bit surprising), but coal and nuclear power has maxed out. The use of oil, of course, showing no change in pattern, is surging, as is natural gas.
  • 12:16 p.m.: $307/MWh
Weekly petroleum reportLink here for the report.
  • US crude oil reserves decreased by 7.4 million bbls
  • refineries now up to almost 97% of full operating capacity
  • gasoline production decreased, now below 10 million bbls per day (actual: 9.7 million bbls)
  • distillate fuel production increased, now solidly above 5 million bbls (actual: 5.6 million bbls)
  • distillate fuel product supplied averaged about 4.1 million bbls/day over the last four weeks, up by almost 6% from the same period last year
  • motor gasoline supplied averaged about 9.2 million bbls/day over the last four weeks, up by 2.1% from the same period last year
  • the gasoline demand graph is posted here; scroll to the bottom of the page when you get to that link
Re-balancing: even with this huge draw, the number of weeks to re-balancing did not drop much in the big scheme of things (assuming I did the math correctly), dropping from 28 weeks to 25 weeks when crude oil reserves will be back to their historic norms. Interestingly enough, the EIA now says "US crude oil inventories are in the middle of the average range for this time of year," which would mean we are re-balanced.

Week
Date
Drawdown
Storage
Weeks to RB
Week 0
Apr 26, 2017

529.0
180
Week 1
May 3, 2017
0.9
528.0
198
Week 2
May 10, 2017
6
522.0
50
Week 3
May 17, 2017
1.8
520.2
59
Week 4
May 24, 2017
4.4
515.8
51
Week 5
May 31, 2017
6.4
509.9
41
Week 6
June 7, 2017
-3.3
513.2
60
Week 7
June 14, 2017
1.7
511.5
57
Week 8
June 21, 2017
2.5
509.0
62
Week 9
June 28, 2017
-0.2
509.2
71
Week 10
July 6, 2017
6.3
502.9
58
Week 11
July 12, 2017
7.6
495.3
47
Week 12
July 19, 2017
4.7
490.6
43
Week 13
July 26, 2017
7.2
483.4
38
Week 14
August 2, 2017
1.5
481.9
44
Week 15
August 9, 2017
6.5
475.4
35
Week 16
August 16, 2017
8.9
466.5
30
Week 17
August 23, 2017
3.3
463.2
29
Week 18
August 30, 2017
5.4
457.8
27
Week 19
September 7, 2017
-4.6
462.4
32
Week 20
September 13, 2017
-5.9
468.2
39
Week 21
September 20, 2017
-4.6
472.8
46
Week 22
September 27, 2017
1.8
471.0
46
Week 23
October 4, 2017
6.0
465.0
41
Week 24
October 12, 2017
2.8
462.2
40
Week 25
October 18, 2017
5.7
456.5
37
Week 26
October 25, 2017
-0.9
457.3
39
Week 27
November 1, 2017
2.4
454.9
38
Week 28
November 8, 2017
-2.2
457.1
42
Week 29
November 15, 2017
1.9
459.0
43
Week 30
November 22, 2017
1.9
457.1
42
Week 31
November 29, 2017
3.4
453.7
41
Week 32
December 6, 2017
5.6
448.1
37
Week 33
December 13, 2017
5.1
443.0
36
Week 34
December 20, 2017
6.5
436.5
30
Week 35
December 28, 2017
4.6
431.9
28
Week 36
January 4, 2018
7.4
424.5
25


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