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Tuesday, January 9, 2018

API Announces "Unprecedented" Drawdown In US Crude Oil Reserves -- January 9, 2018

Wow! API weekly crude oil drawdown --
  • previous week: - 4.992 million
  • forecast for this week: -3.90 million
  • actual: -11.190 million
  • comment: in the past 36 weeks of tracking this data, an EIA drawdown has never exceeded 8 million bbls, and the average is almost exactly 3 million bbls/week; if the EIA data comes anywhere close to a drawdown of 9 million bbls, "Katie, bar the door"
  • comment: look at the price of WTI  after this data was announced 
  • for re-balancing, I use EIA data, not API data; EIA data always seems to come in under API data
Active rigs:

$63.481/9/201801/09/201701/09/201601/09/201501/09/2014
Active Rigs533758167193

Five new permits:
  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Banks (McKenzie)
  • Comments: Whiting has permits for a 5-well Wold pad on Lot 1, section 5-153-97; see graphic below;
Eight permits renewed:
  • Nine Point Energy (2): two Little Muddy permits in Williams County
  • NP Resources (2): two Mosser Federal permits in Billings County
  • BR: one Manchester permit in Dunn County
  • Enduro: one MRPSU permit in Renville County
  • MRO: one Stillwell permit in Dunn County
Amazing: no report of any DUCs completed -- again

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From Above -- The Whiting Graphic



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Another Example Of The Bakken Phenomenon

Note production profile for this well, pay attention to 11/16:
  • 25802, 1,944, Whiting/KOG, Koala Wold 153-97-1-5-9-15H, Banks, 4 sections, t3/14; cum 219K 2/18;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-201730597060491678417547150832374
BAKKEN10-20172349174639218491349666576770
BAKKEN9-2017145044302
BAKKEN8-201799851102869378837622
BAKKEN7-20173038823917308513807110212698
BAKKEN6-201724333632812867942733795977
BAKKEN5-2017314077429936631254911869589
BAKKEN4-2017273669410435321082088801859
BAKKEN3-20173056935150563120333171923051
BAKKEN2-20172859346218668819138172371817
BAKKEN1-20172871577433875920999763813277
BAKKEN12-201628764873931037621716746114171
BAKKEN11-20163010797110541898730905227328542
BAKKEN10-20161646653922144751240630049354
BAKKEN9-20160000000
BAKKEN8-2016282123224216747666754438

What happened in late 2016? Yup, you guessed it. A neighboring well was fracked. In this case:
  •  32559, 1,416, Whiting, Flatland 43-9HU, Banks, 4 sections, t10/16; cum 160K 11/17;

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