I'm Heading To Bed: My Server Is Too Slow Tonight -- November 12, 2017

Good luck to all.

Typographical and factual errors will be corrected tomorrow.

Comments will be moderated tomorrow.

I'm out of here.

NFL players still kneel - Veterans Day.  Stadiums, at least in some venues, half empty. I'm through.

Shadows In A Mirror, Chris Isaak

Wells Coming Off Confidential LIst This Next Week -- November 12, 2017

Monday, November 20, 2017
33178, conf, Hess, BL-A Iverson-155-96-1312H-7, Beaver Lodge, no production data,
22721, conf, Nine Point Energy, Erickson 155-102-26-25-4H, Squires, no production data,

Sunday, November 19, 2017
26976, conf, Oasis, Hanover Federal 5300 44-11 3T, Willow Creek, producing, a nice well; 

Saturday, November 18, 2017
33177, conf, Hess, BL-A Iverson-LE-155-96-1312H-1, Beaver Lodge, no production data,
32976, conf, BR, Dodge 3A TFH, Dimmick Lake, no production data,
30094, conf, CLR, Olympia 4-2H1, Brooklyn, a good well; as much as 35K in one month;
30093, conf, CLR, Olympia 5-27H, Brookyn, a good well, as much as 40K in one month;
29137, conf, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-36C-25-12H, McGregory Buttes, a great well; as much as 40 K in one month;
22722, conf, Nine Point Energy, Erickson 155-102-26-25-3H, Squires, no production data,

Friday, November 17, 2017
32977, conf, BR, Dodge 3B MBH, Dimmick Lake, no production data, 
29090, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23C-14-6H, no production data,

Thursday, November 16, 2017
33403, conf, MRO, Stroup 34-7TFH, Bailey, no production data,
33400, conf, MRO, Ernst 14-7TFH, Bailey, no production data,
32978, conf, BR, Dodge 3C TFH, Dimmick Lake, no production data,
32477, conf, Whiting, Buckman 34-9-2PH, Bell, producing,

Wednesday, November 15, 2017
33534, conf, MRO, Bronett 14-7H, Bailey, no production data,
33000, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dressler 6-36-25-158N-100W, Dublin, no production data,
32979, conf, BR, Dodge 3D MBH, Dimmick Lake, no production data,
32789, conf, QEP, MHA 2-27-34H-148-92R, Heart Butte, a nice well, producing,
31462, conf, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-36C-25-7H, McGregory Buttes, a huge;
31346, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dressler 3-36-25-158N-100W, Dublin, no production data,

Tuesday, November 14, 2017
33535, conf, MRO, Arkin 44-12TFH, Bailey, no production data,
31851, conf, Whiting, 3J Trust 34-8-2P, Bell, a great well;
26975, conf, Oasis, Hanover Federal 5300 44-11 2B, Willow Creek; a great well;

Monday, November 13, 2017
None.

Sunday Evening -- November 12, 2017 -- Another NFL-Free Sunday And I'm Lovin' It

Futures mean squat but it's nice to see all three major indices in the green (a dynamic link). WTI just below $57.

NASCAR: incredibly good race today. Highlight of the race for me today -- the way the racers congratulated Matt Kenseth, his first win in 61 races (?). 

A Madison Well Is Completed -- Petro Harvester STR1 -- November 12, 2017

A Madison DUC is completed:

• 33148, 142, Petro Harvester, STR1 22-15 163-90 B, Stony Run, Madison, t9/17; cum 18K 9/17; TD = 15,968 feet; 20 stages; 1.8 million lbs; lots of water; a long lateral;
  

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
MADISON	9-2017	30	5570	5752	51804	9859	0	9859
MADISON	8-2017	31	6906	7201	70477	10556	0	10556
MADISON	7-2017	31	4502	3941	83552	5006	0	5006
MADISON	6-2017	25	638	195	75549	502	0	502

The Coyote Blog On EVs -- November 12, 2017

From The Coyote Blog: why is it so hard to get even smart people to think clearly on electric vehicle efficiency.

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Trump: One Year Later

Predictions one year ago when President Trump was elected president, and how it turned out:

• NYC tourism office said his election would cost the city 300,000 visitors; in fact, NYC foreign tourism will likely rise 3.6% this year;
• finance expert (and the term is used loosely) Steve Rattner foresaw "a market crash of historic proportions"; in fact, since his election, the global markets have added $26 trillion
• Moody warned of a "weaker" economy, saying 2% GDP was the best we could hope for; in fact, looking at 3% or more for Trump's full quarters
• other doomsayers
• Mark Cuban
• CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin
• Bridgewater Associates 
• Macroeconomic Advisers
• Nobel-winning economist Paul Krugman, walked back his earlier doomsday prediction, saying "a global recession with no end in sight"
• in fact:
• the Dow has climbed more than 25% since Hilary Clinton conceded
• the first two full quarters of Trump's term both saw growth of 3% or more
• predictions that ObamaCare enrollment would plummet; it didn't; a record number of people signed up in the first few days; the first day, 200,00 sign-ups, twice last year's number, and more than 1 million visited healthcare.gov versus 750,000 in 2016

and, finally:

As for all the noise about fascism and tyranny: Trump has scrupulously obeyed the law, even as judges came up with unprecedented legal theories to strike down his “travel ban” executive orders. 

The Empire Builder -- An Update -- Novmeber 12, 2017

From Zacks, two days ago:

EQT receives shareholders' approval for Rice Energy buyout. 

See this post for background information.

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Watching The Royal Tea Leaves

From The [London] Telegraph News: Remembrance Sunday: Queen watches Whitehall service from balcony for first time as Prince Charles (her son, not her grandson) lays her wreath.

We'll Meet Again, Vera Lynn

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Watching The Tesla Tea Leaves

From MarketWatch, Tesla's junk bonds are trading under water and it could spell trouble for Elon Musk. 

Tesla Inc. first-ever pure corporate bonds are trading under water, boding ill for the Silicon Valley car maker’s next attempt to tap capital markets.

The 5.300% notes, which mature in 2025, were trading at 93.81 cents on the dollar on Friday to yield 6.320%. The bonds fell under par within a week of issuance, but were holding above 97 cents for much of October. [The size of this bond issue: $1.8 billion.]

The weak performance of the bonds may be a sign that bond investors, at least, are starting to disbelieve Tesla’s growth story and will be looking for higher premiums to take on higher risk.

If Tesla is delivering 5,000 cars/month (all models; S,3, and X) that works out to about $1,500/car in annual interest payments on these 5.3% notes.

Disclaimer: my usual disclaimer about my arithmetic skills applies.

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The Ugly Americans

UCLA and Georgia Tech played an exhibition basketball game in Hangzhou, China, last week.

Three UCLA players must not have received the memo. They were arrested for shoplifting in the hotel's gift shop and were detained by authorities while the rest of the team flew home. 

I guess you can take the boys out of the 'hood, but you can't take the 'hood out of the boys. Wow. I guess this is how you show your coach and your team some respect.

In their defense, one would assume this is the Marxist way of thinking. Fifty percent of millennials probably see nothing wrong in this. My hunch: they will be "kneelers" when they "grow up."

According to at least one report: they could be held in China for "several weeks." This would have happened at the time/around the time President Trump was visiting China.

From KTLA-TV:

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Light Rail Killing LA's Mass Transit 

As long as we're in la-la land, one more story. From The Los Angeles Times:

The Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s ridership has been falling steadily since 2014, losing on average 69,000 daily riders each month. The most recent 12 months of data show a decrease of more than 10% compared with the same period three years ago, and Metro’s current “annual boardings” — just under 400 million — represent a drop of almost 20% from the system’s 1985 peak, even though the county’s population has increased by nearly a fifth since then.

In 1986, Metro ended the fare subsidy and shifted the funds to building rail lines, beginning with the Long Beach Blue Line, which opened in 1990.

Total transit ridership proceeded to fall until the NAACP, the Bus Riders’ Union and others took Metro to federal court to protect bus service in 1994. Their argument was that the expansion of rail was coming at the expense of bus routes, bus frequency and bus riders, and it was disproportionately harming minorities, the elderly and the young. Metro settled, and the deal was enshrined in a 10-year consent decree starting in 1996.

The settlement allowed Metro to build all the rail it could afford, so long as specific bus service improvements were made too. Those improvements included reducing fares, increasing service on existing lines, establishing new lines, replacing old buses and keeping the fleet clean. Lo and behold, while the decree was in force L.A.’s transit ridership rose by 36%.

When Metro was no longer bound by the settlement, it refocused its efforts almost exclusively on new rail projects. The quality of bus service began declining in almost every way measurable, and overall ridership again fell.

By the way, the writer at the Coyote blog said the same thing happened in Phoenix; he's been writing about the Phoenix debacle for years.

I guess one could say, "no mas transito, menos transito."

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The Literary Page

From: A New Literary History of America, edited by Greil Marcus and Werner Solors, c. 2009, p. 456, an essay by Gerald Early, on L. Frank Baum and the The Wonderful Wizard of Oz.

Baum was by no means an inexperienced author when he began his career as a children's writer in the 1890s. At the age of twenty-three, he started The Poultry Record, a monthly trade journal abut the breeding of fancy chickens. (He had a lifelong interest in the subject of prize poultry.) Most of it was cribbed from other journals, but he wrote editorials and jokes.

In South Dakota, Baum started a newspaper in 1890 called the Aberdeen Saturday Pioneer, for which he wrote editorials and a column entitled "Our Landlady." He lost the paper to bankruptcy in 1891 and moved to Chicago.

A few years later, in 1897, Baum started a monthly journal called The Shop Window: A Journal of Practical Window Trimming for the Merchant and the Professional.

While running a store, Baum's Bazaar, in South Dakota, Baum had become adept at creating attractive window displays, so he chose to exploit this skill in his new publication. The idea of seducing the eye, which is so emphasized in The Wonderful Wizard of Oz with the emerald-colored glasses and the theatrical tricks of the Wizard, probably has its roots in Baum's work of window dressing.

He gave up publishing the magzine in 1900, when his career as a children's writer began to take off.

In May, 1900, advance copies of the Hill Company's The Wonderful Wizard of Oz -- text by L. Frank Baum and illustrations by W. W. Denslow -- began to circulate among reviewers.

And the rest if history. 

As a fictional location, Oz is better known than Mark Twain's St Petersburg and Faulkner's Yoknapatawpha County. (The only fantasy place comparable in familiarity may be Disneyland.)

Making America Great Again -- Boeing Seals Huge Mideast Dreamliner Deal Worth Billions; (Sort Of) Surprises Airbus -- November 12, 2017

Updates

Later, 7:45 a.m. Central Time:  wow, wow, wow. The original post was posted just a couple of hours ago. The story at that link has been updated, and a story at the Los Angeles Times has confirmed that Boeing surprised Airbus by getting their deal signed first. Airbus still holds out hope they will also seal a huge deal. Buyers are still comparing the Dreamliner against the Airbus workhorse, the A380. The Boeing 787-10 typically lists for $312.8 million. Delivery will begin in 2022.

Boeing builds the 787 at its plant in North Charleston, SC, which President Trump visited in February. 

Original Post

 

Do you remember this post from November 9, 2017?

Fake news: lead story at Yahoo!Finance right now, a Bloomberg story with this headline -- "Trump's $250 billion China haul is big number, little substance." We are barely into the start of the visit, and already that conclusion.

Since then, any number of mega-deals coming out of the China-Trump visit. This next story (see below) is not from China but follows very closely on the heels of this China-Trump visit story:

The Bloomberg article failed to mention this story in ibttimes: Trump's China visit: Boeing inks $37 billion deal to sell 300 aircraft. Three hundred aircraft. 

The newest business deal to be announced during the Trump administration, from Reuters: Boeing appears close to sealing a deal to sell 40 of its longest version of its Dreamliner family to Emirates, and may even surprise Airbus by grabbing an early order from Dubai for 787-10 Dreamliners in a deal worth nearly $15 billion.