Saturday Night Meanderings -- Nothing About The Bakken -- November 4, 2017

 Updates

Later, 8:26 p.m. Central Time: wow, what are the odds? Earlier today I had the opportunity to have my picture taken in front of the #20 car, driven by Eric Jones, in the Xfinity Series, but I did not have my camera, so the photo never got taken. I did get a free beer koozie, but no photo in front of the car. and now, wow ... Eric Jones, #20, wins the first stage of the race out at the Texas Motor Speedway tonight.  If he wins the final stage, I'm going to be really, really miffed.[Update: I'm really miffed.]

Original Post

 

Maybe it already exists. I don't know. I don't have satellite radio. But if I had "all the money in the world," as they say, I would start an ABBA radio station. Nothing but ABBA. ABBA songs. ABBA interviews. ABBA stories. I'm sure the ABBA fan club could provide the station a never-ending litany of ABBA trivia. And, of course, one would allow non-ABBA material if it could "connect" with ABBA in some way, no matter how remote the dots. Just saying.

In my car radio reception area, it seems I can find 53 Hispanic stations and not one: a) classic rock station; b) classic country station; c) classic pop station; d) business station; or, e) all-news station. And never any ABBA.

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Iowa

Mom is in a nursing home in Portland, OR. I wish she was still interested in football. She would have loved the Iowa-Ohio State final score today, 55 -24, or something close. Mom was born and raised in northwest Iowa. She disliked North Dakota a lot (an understatement) but she was like a hen watching over her chickens and she gave up Iowa for her children.

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TCU vs Texas

I really don't care, but the game is just down the road from us in Ft Worth. Okay. But, I'm waiting for the Xfinity race which supposedly starts at 7:30 p.m. Central Time on NBCS, "channel" 31, locally. I have to write this down so I don't forget.

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Coup

It looks like Saudi Arabian Prince Salman preemptively took out a coup attempt on his "administration." Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's anti-missile defense took out a Yemen ballistic missile. Yemen has ballistic missiles? Who wudda thought? I wonder where they got them? And where did they find the money?

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We Had A Great Evening Out Last Night

Downtown Grapevine, TX

Location: Main Street Bistro and Bakery

Cocktails

• Bruce: Old-Fashioned
• May: Mimosa (2nd choice; they had run out of Apricot Fizz -- if you can believe that)
• Sophia: what happens in Grapevine, stays in Grapevine

Dinner

• moules et frites (mussels and french fries) -- our favorite choice in any French restaurant
• mac and cheese
• French bread, of course

Dessert

• Strawberries Romanoff

Mild To Moderate Jump In Production For EOG Van Hook Wells In Parshall Oil Field After New Well Fracked -- November 4, 2017

From a June 27, 2017 post: check #19662, #17619, 24553, 24552, 17280 for any halo effect; Parshall Van Hook wells. Maybe some halo effect for #24552.

Yes, a mild to moderate halo effect shown for several of the wells noted above, particularly #24553 and #17619. I won't be following these wells any more.

CLR's Rath Federal Wells In The Sanish Have Been Fracked -- November 4, 2017

These wells will NOT be tracked here; they will be tracked elsewhere.

All the Rath Federal DUCs are now back on CONF and have been completed based on production data.

I only looked at one of the wells (#31678, API: 33-061-03788) and according to FracFocus it was fracked 6/7 - 28/2017.

EOG Clarks Creek Wells Back On-Line -- November 4, 207

Back on June 24, 2017: many of the EOG Clarks Creek wells were noted to be off-line as of late 2016, and going into 2017; huge wells; still confidential 8/17).

Checking them today, they are all back on-line, and at least one of them showed a marked increase in production. 

The White Butte Oil (Slawson) Stacked Dual Laterals In The Antelope Oil Field, Southwest Of New Town Have Been Updated -- November 4, 2017

Link here. Panzer 1-20MLH, #21385, is back on line (according to FracFocus, this well was fracked in 3/15; and 9/16, but no later data for a re-frack).

Dominion's Cove Point Should Be Up And Running This Week -- November 4, 2017

I track the US LNG export terminals here.

A reader alerted me to this story over at Platts: Cove Point LNG production to start in November (and for those not paying attention), today is the fourth day of November. According to the Platts article posted October 30, 2017:

The company has said previously it expects feedgas to flow to the facility by Tuesday. The plant was still not flowing any feedgas to the liquefaction plant as of Monday. However, once flows begin, receipt volumes at both the Loudoun and Pleasant Valley interconnects with Columbia Gas Transmission and Transcontinental Gas Pipeline, respectively, can be expected to increase as the two points are the main supply meters for the liquefaction plant.

LNG export terminal projects -- update in one graph, from this post:

Flashback To 2008: Oil Drum's Perspective On The Bakken -- November 4, 2017

In the process of looking for another article (which I have not yet found), I ran across this article again from theoildrum: "The Bakken Formation: How Much Will It Help?" by a "petroleum engineer working in the petroleum industry," posted back in 2008.

His observations and conclusions:

• daily Bakken production in October, 2008: 75,000 bopd
• it seems unlikely that total Bakken production will exceed 2x to 3x current rate of 75,000 bopd (or 225,000 bopd) -- for newbies, unfettered, the Bakken can produce 2.2 million bopd; currently it produces over 1 million bopd, down from its all-time record due to low price of oil
• based on current production, the USGS estimate of technically recovery recovery (sic) resources seems optimistic
• the Bakken will have minimal impact on US production or imports -- for newbies, Saudi has slashed crude oil exports headed for the US
• a rate of 75,000 bopd amounts to only 0.4% of US oil consumption, or 0.6% of imports -- for newbies, I believe the Bakken now accounts for about 10% of total crude oil production
• per-well Bakken production peaked in August, 2005, at 116 bopd, and was down to 79 bopd in October, 2007; if the Bakken production history in the 1990s can be used as a guide, the peaking of per-well production may portend a peak in total Bakken production

Comments on the article, I particularly enjoyed:

From "NeverLNG":

Thanks for the superb rundown on Bakken. I'll read it carefully later -- but it certainly is in accord with other things I have read.

I just went through there on Amtrak Empire Builder -- there is a huge buzz in North Dakota about the possibility of vast riches to be had. I fear there will be massive disappointment when the reality hits.

From Will Stewart:

Not surprisingly, the hype about the Bakken's potential ends up being hype after all. Even if the Bakken's could be produced at peak levels starting right now (which it can't), it would only delay global peak production by approximately 6 weeks; so much for the "Saudi Arabia" of Northern Plains that oil company surrogates have attempted to spin.

From Gwydion:

You know how the old saying goes: A gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar on top. Something similar might be said for oil too.

However, we've talked about this a bit previously on this site and up until now I've been pretty skeptical but now that I've read this I'm fairly impressed.

Even if this does nothing for global supplies, or make a dent in the U.S. imports, this will be a boon for the economy of these states. Or rather, it will be a boon to the finances of those who lease the land the wells are on and the few people who are actively engaged in extracting and shipping the oil. Yet, translating mineral wealth into a diversified economy has always been a challenge for the western states.

From Dave Cohen:

I came to the same conclusions as you did, saying that production would peak somewhere in excess of 100,000 barrels per day but likely never matching peak output from Thunder Horse (250,000 b/d). I also said that peak rates from the Middle Bakken won't come for another 5-10 years.

As you say, longer term production will depend on the number of wells drilled. A few thousands wells will be required to boost production to the eventual peak in the low hundreds of thousands of barrels per day.

Alright, enough of this. Time to find that other article. I apologize for posting this song again, so soon, but there is simply not a better song for this post:

Everybody's Somebody's Fool, Connie Francie