The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 03/31/17

Friday, March 31, 2017

WPX's Peterson Wells, Van Hook Oil Field, Now Completed -- March 31, 2017

The wells:

31174, 1,027, WPX, Peterson 6-5-4 HZL, Van Hook, Three Forks, 61 stages, 25,570 feet TD; 14-foot seam; , lateral began on December 25, 2015; and TD reached January 3, 2016; low gas, with a peak of 569 units; t8/16; cum 120K 2/17
31173, 829, WPX, Peterson 6-5-4 HD, Van Hook, middle Bakken, 59 stages, , t8/16; cum 93K 2/17;
31172, 1,763, WPX, Peterson 6-5-4 HQ, Van Hook, Three Forks, 61 stages, t10/16; cum 97K 2/17;
31171, 1,657, WPX, Peterson 6-5-4- HC, Van Hook, middle Bakken, 61 stages, t8/16; cum 96K 2/17;

Whiting: Comparing Redtail Niobara With The Bakken -- Seeking Alpha -- March 31, 2017

Link here.

Archived.

A reader sent me the link (a huge "thank you"). A quick e-mail reply after quickly reading the article:

These analysts really do a great job trying to sort this stuff out. Even with all the time I've spent on the Bakken, I've never been able to figure out the investment side.

I'll have to read this article several times -- it seems to be one of the better ones -- to really understand it.

I'm always "humbled" when I see an article like this -- there is just so much to cover, so much to learn.

It's interesting how big an effect the DAPL might have on these companies.

If the DAPL really does make that big a difference in the Bakken (profitability and production), everyone in ND should be even more upset how long it took to get this "relatively" simple project completed.

Week 13: March 26, 2017 -- April 1, 2017

It was a fairly quiet week in the big scheme of things. The price of oil trended down early in the week but by Friday was back up to $50.

Now that oil is "under the river" in the DAPL pipeline (whether it is flowing is another story), the company is no longer required to provide weekly updates to the court. If everything goes smoothly we won't hear much about the daily flow, but hopefully we will get updates in the NDIC Director's monthly "Director's Cut."

There were a lot of posts about Slawson and the number of wells it will drill in 640-acre and 1280-acre spacing units. Every year, in my annual top stories of the year, I name the Bakken operator that I found "most interesting" for the year. Right now, Slawson is easily winning in that category.

At the national level, economically, things look quite exciting, but that is not yet reflected in objective data, like project GDP growth.

National, miscellaneous
Consumer confidence, strongest level measured in decades
US energy production falls for first time since 2009

Operations
Whiting reports another great Rolla Federal well
Oasis: 90 wells in small area in northeast McKenzie County
Oasis to drill as many as 30 wells in one 640-acre unit
Oasis: another 18 wells in a drilling unit with seven long laterals
EOR pilot, Madison pool, Samson Oil and Gas
Hess transfers nine (9) wells in Divide County to Crescent Point
Random update of an area of interest in Charbonneau oil field
Skarston wells off-line again; no explanation

Pipelines
Oil in DAPL pipeline segment that is under the lake/river
ND active rig count jumps 40% after President Trump approves DAPL

Fracking
Production jumps 13-fold in an old BR well in North Fork oil field
Two Haystack Butte wells with interesting production profiles
Is the Elidah oil field telling us something?
Two Petro-Hunt Charlson oil field wells finally completely; 50 stages but only 5 million lbs each

DUCs
EOG reports eight (8) completed DUCs -- all unremarkable

Bakken economy
Contractor named for new Williston airport

Commentary
Connecting the dots: Keystone, Canadian oil sands, heavy oil, light oil
Why Midwest refiners chose to pass up local Bakken bounty

Seventeen Permits Renewed -- March 31, 2017

Active rigs:

	3/31/2017	03/31/2016	03/31/2015	03/31/2014	03/31/2013
Active Rigs	50	30	99	194	188

Four (4) new permits:

Operator: Enerplus
Field: Antelope (McKenzie)
Comments:

Seventeen (17) permits renewed:

CLR (13): thirteen Jersey and Jersey Federal permits in Mountrail County
BR (3): two Gudmunson and one Gudcadia permit, in McKenzie County
Petro-Hunt: one Clark Griswold Federal permit in McKenzie County

~~Three (3) permits canceled~~:

~~WPX (3): three Caribou permits in Dunn County~~
NDIC, May 24, 2017 -- this was an error; DUCs reported as completed;

One well recompleted:

19947, Trendwell Energy, Matter State 3-17H,

North Dakota 2016 Taxable Sales And Purchases

North Dakota 2016 Taxable Sales and Purchases.

Update On Oasis Case #25524 -- 90 Wells In Small Area In Northeast McKenzie County -- March 31, 2017

NDIC hearing dockets, case #25524, from the January, 2017, hearing dockets.

Field: Dimmick Lake, Siverston, and/or Johnson Corner-Bakken
County: McKenzie
Oasis, i) 3 wells on each of six overlapping 2560-acre units (see graphic): A, B, C, D, E, F; note that (A) has been withdrawn (a request for 3 wells on an overlapping 2560-acre unit)
Oasis, ii) 18 wells on each of four 1280-acre units (see graphic (G, H, I, J)

The graphic (the text is placed in the center of the drilling units):

A (withdrawn), B, C, D, E, F: overlapping 2560-acre units (4 sections, all units are 2x2)
G, H, I, J: 1280-acre units (all stand-up units)

Worth 10,000 Words -- Note The 18-Well Pad In The Background -- March 31, 2017

A big "thank you" to the reader for alerting me to this link at Reuters.

All in one screenshot:

18-well pad
pipeline
Trump
controversial
$540 million saved annually in shipping costs

The photo is not as good as a Vern Whitten photograph but it will do for now.

So, we now have these memes:

highly explosive Bakken oil
highly inflammable Bakken oil
DAPL - controversial pipeline

And, no doubt, more to come.

Consumer Confidence -- March 31, 2017

From Yahoo!News, data points, regarding US consumer confidence,

booming
final reading for March, 2017: 96.9
better than February's reading of 96.3
near the strongest level measured in decades
validates The Conference Board (three days ago) had consumer confidence at best level since 2000

Comments:

seems to be at odds of mainstream polling showing Trump approval at 36%;
underscores just how far off-the-rails Joe Biden's administration had taken us; and,
suggests the 2009 - 2016 administration was an anomaly in modern US history

Worth Repeating: The Katie Ledecky Page -- Previously Posted -- March 31, 2017

The Katie Ledecky Page

Katie Ledecky named PAC-12 newcomer of the year.

Stanford wins its first national swimming and diving title in 19 years.

One year after the heartbreaking loss Stanford suffered to Georgia, The Cardinal have made it back to the top for the ninth time in their school history in their first NCAA Swimming and Diving Championship since 1998.

It was a dominate victory by Stanford who pretty much had it wrapped up by the end of day 3.

It was a special final race to end the night in the 400 free relay as Stanford’s Lia Neal, also an Olympian, would swim the anchor leg in her last race as a Cardinal.

Before the race, head coach Greg Meehan told the other swimmers on the relay, Simone Manuel, Katie Ledecky and Janet Hu, to go out and win this for Lia. They stood on the blocks, went out fast and never looked back. By the time Lia’s final lap came, all she had to do was bring them home.

Stanford ended up setting a new American and NCAA record with a time of 3:07.61, breaking the previous record they had set back at Pac-12s by 0.9 seconds. It was a storybook ending for Lia Neal and the Stanford Cardinal’s unforgettable season.

There's a nice video at the link -- the 400 Free Relay -- Ledecky had the third leg, and had a slight, very slight lead as she dived (dove?) in; she lengthened the Stanford lead by about a full body length, ensuring that Stanford would win. Stanford, 1st; then Georgia, and then USC.

And somewhat older news (previously reported): Ledeckky wins the 1650 free with second fastest time in history. Again, a nice video but it's almost 20 minutes long. The question was whether she could be the first woman to come in under 15 minutes. Not this time. A little over 15 minutes, 3 second.

But the big story was how much Stanford dominated this year (remember, they had not won the national championship in almost 20 years):

Stanford: 526.5 points
California: 366 points
Texas A&M: 292.5 points
Georgia: 252.5 points
Texas: 252 points

US Energy Production Falls For First Time Since 2009 -- The Market And Energy Page, T+69 -- March 31, 2017

US energy production falls year-over-year for first time since 2009.

U.S. primary energy production totaled 84.1 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2016, falling 4% from the 2015 level, the first annual decline in U.S. energy production since 2009. The decline in production coincided with an increase in both total energy imports and exports. --- EIA

Fracking 2.0. That's what The Wall Street Journal is calling it. Today a nice article on EOG.

Memo to self: send note to Jane Nielson. Previously posted, and posted often:

This still remains one of my favorite posts. Jane Nielson says:

Frequent Internet users are getting emails about the Bakken Formation in North Dakota and Montana, supposedly a great oil bonanza just waiting to be tapped if only nasty enviros would let it happen. The emails and websites say that Bakken would solve all our petroleum “needs.” (What, me worry about global warming?)

Don’t believe it. There’s some oil to be gotten out of Bakken, and it’s going to be exploited. But the “bonanza” is nothing but hype.

Then cite these two posts following the NDIC April, 2017, hearing dockets:

Apple: another record high? I think so.

The Jobs Report, T+69 -- March 31, 2017

Updates

Later, 10:18 a.m. Central Time: the wages and spending report was not particularly noteworthy, but first reading suggests it was all good news. And yet, the press continued the theme that was noted earlier this morning with the jobs report: "if the financial news is good, report it as not as good as predicted."

Original Post

This is a day late. I got sidetracked with the NDIC hearing dockets yesterday.

This will be a stand-alone on the jobs report today.

Three links::

Econoday: unusual opening line.
Business Insider: keeps with the theme.
Kiplinger: and Kiplinger simply gets it wrong --

unrevised level of 261,000
the unemployment rate, which is derived from a separate survey, edged down to 4.7%

The jobs reports for the past couple of weeks have not been particularly good.

Having said that, the opening line for at Econoday seemed a bit unusual:

Initial jobless claims did fall 3,000 in the March 25 week but the level of 258,000 is higher than expected and, next to the prior week's 261,000, is the highest so far this year.

And Business Insider kept up that theme, with this opening line:

Initial jobless claims fell less than expected.

I don't ever recall that being the narrative during the Obama administration but I do have selective memory.

It appears that under Trump, even if we have good news, even business reporters will find a way to paint it in a negative fashion.

But, I do have to agree: the jobless reports for the past couple of weeks have been a) horrendous -- last week; and, b) not much better -- this week.

Kiplinger, of course, got it wrong when they said the previous week's number was "unrevised." In fact, it was revised upward from 258,000 to 261,000. Had last week's number not been revised, this week's number would have been the same: 258,000. Whatever.

Finally, Kiplinger says the unemployment rate edged to 4.7% (not saying what it was previously -- it was 4.8%) and not noting that was very old news. That is February's unemployment rate and the number was released back on March 10.

The Political Page, T+69 -- March 31, 2017

Updates

April 4, 2017: Knoxville could be first US city where ObamaCare fails. CNN reports that Humana, the only insurer left on the Affordable Care exchange in the Knoxville area, is set to exit the market in 2018.

Original Post

Penal shock! Maybe it's just me but I find it amazing/striking/depressing/surprising (all of the above) that more than 20% of federal prisoners are non-citizens. Link here.

Health Shock! ObamaCare stalwart Anthem seen likely to retreat for 2018. Data points from Bloombergsupports Trump's narrative -- Bloomberg:

Anthem likely to "pull back"
Anthem is "leaning toward exiting a high percentage of the 144 rating regions in which it currently participates"
Anthem was one of the few big insurers that stuck with ACA
UnitedHealth Group and Aetna Inc. have already exited most states
Humana planning to stop offering individual ACA plans entirely for 2018

Surrendering! Fox Business News hypes fight between Trump and the GOP faction that killed the Ryan-TrumpCare bill. Spokesman for the latter appears to have gotten the message. Says new bill will be passed before Easter. If that happens, speaks volumes about presidential tweets.

ND Budget. UND may cut women's hockey, and both men's and women's swimming programs in response to "state's bleak financial picture." I think Rob Port over at SayAnythingBlog will discuss this at length. It's only a matter of time before the state legislature taps the untappable Legacy Fund.

Legacy Fund. Through March, 2017, total deposits to the Legacy Fund were $3,833,534,676. Deposits to the fund do not equal value of assets in the Legacy Fund. According to the state's annual budget report released June 30, 2016, data points for the Legacy Fund (and this is why the fund's investment strategy is not talked about much):

fair value: $3,809,485,184
rates of return (for fiscal year ending 6/30):

2016: 1.06%
2015: 3.31%
2014: 6.64%
2013: 1.15%
2012: --

Natural Gas Supply / Demand Scenarios For Injection Season -- RBN Energy -- March 31, 2017