At Least We Have The Worst Case Scenario Numbers For Global Warming -- January 5, 2017

A "controversial" study suggests global warming has not slowed down (the current meme). From the BBC:

When the researchers corrected the data to take this "cold bias" into account, they concluded that the oceans had warmed 0.12C per decade since 2000, nearly twice as fast as previous estimates of 0.07 degrees.

As a result, the authors said that the warming experienced in the first 15 years of the 21st Century was "virtually indistinguishable" from the rate of warming between 1950-99, a time generally acknowledged (another meme) to have seen significant rates of warming from human emissions of CO2.

Again, based on ocean buoys, the "oceans" have warmed 0.12C per decade since 2000 -- to the best of my knowledge, we haven't even had two full decades since 2000, but letting that go, 0.12C per decade = 0.012C per year. Does anyone truly believe that 0.012C per year for the "entire global ocean" is even a) reproducible; and, b) statistically significant. (It's possible, the authors mean "per rolling decade.")

At this rate, a hundred years from now, ocean temperature will be 10 x 0.12C or 1.2C warmer. Okay. Whatever. And this was the worst case scenario. And a "controversial" study at that.

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Good Riddance

I hope you had the time of your life.

#5 in the 20-song countdown.

Good Riddance (Time Of Your Life, Green Day

Six Producing Wells (DUCs) Reported As Completed; Unremarkable -- January 5, 2017

Active rigs:

	1/5/2017	01/05/2016	01/05/2015	01/05/2014	01/05/2013
Active Rigs	39	58	170	184	179

One well coming off confidential list Friday:

• 32381, conf, BR, Hawktail 11-11MBH-ULW -- according to NDIC was supposed to come off confidential list Friday; remained confidential

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported to be completed:

• 30918, 1,520, WPX, North Segment 6-5-4 HA, Van Hook, t1/17; cum --
• 30919, 1,453, WPX, North Segment 6-5-4 HW, Van Hook, t1/17; cum --
• 30920, 1,202, WPX, North Segment 6-5-4 HB, Van Hook, t12/16; cum --
• 30921, 1,629, WPX, North Segment 6-5-4 HY, Van Hook, t12/16; cum --
• 32151, 186, XTO, Johnson 31X-6HXE, Siverston, t11/16; cum --
• 32619, 150, XTO, Johsnon 31X-6FXG, Siverston, t10/16; cum -- 

Nothing else on the daily activity report.

From The Mainstream Media -- Nothing About The Bakken -- January 5, 2017

Stanley Black and Decker will open a new $35 million manufacturing plant in the United States after acquiring Craftsman from Sears. USA Today suggests Stanley B&D made the announcement to "inoculate the company from the possible effects of the president-elect's threatened "border tax."

So, we'll add this to the #TrumpJobs page.

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 Let's See, What's That Female Symbol Look Like Anyway?

See if you can spot the mistake:

For those who missed it: this was the Women's Inauguration March bulletin, a free daily tabloid urging women to join the million-women march on Washington. The "male" symbol was used for the cover to highlight the "million-women march."

Forward together! From the same group telling us the average global temperature will be 0.2 degrees warmer 83 years from now if we don't stop cows from passing gas.

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Snopes Jumped On This Story Within Four Hours .....

Another great example of the "strawman argument."  No one ever said other presidents didn't get the same medal. All we're saying is that the boss got a participation medal from one of his employees.

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.... Still Hasn't Updated Its "Analysis" of the Bakken

Snopes.com has never updated its March 10, 2011 "update" of the Bakken in which it noted:

According to news accounts, although new drilling techniques have greatly increased oil production in Bakken formation in recent years, as of February 2011 that region was still yielding less than half a million barrels per day. 

Yup, according to news accounts..... I think Hillary used Snopes.com for her own fact-checking.

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Depravity That Would Outrage A Lot of Americans

The White House response to the 18-y/o white special needs man tortured by four African-American adults:

"They do demonstrate a level of depravity that is an outrage to a lot of Americans," Earnest said. "I have not spoken to the president but I'm confident he would be angered by the images depicted."

I'm not sure which Americans would not be outraged by this, but apparently, according to the White House, a lot of Americans would not have been outraged.

Through 2050, US To Be Net Exporter Of Energy -- EIA -- January 5, 2017

From EIA's annual energy outlook 2017: EIA's AEO2017 projects the United States as a net energy exporter in most cases.

This is the first time that EIA is publishing projections through 2050 in the AEO tables.

The United States becomes a net energy exporter in most AEO2017 cases as petroleum liquid imports fall and natural gas exports rise.

Exports are highest, and grow throughout the projection period, in the High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology case, as favorable geology and technological developments combine to produce oil and gas at lower prices.

The High Oil Price case provides favorable economic conditions for producers while restraining domestic consumption, enabling the most rapid transition to net exporter status.

In all cases but the High Oil and Gas Resource Technology case, which assumes substantial improvements in production technology and more favorable resource availability, U.S. production declines in the 2030s, which slows or reverses projected growth in net energy exports.

Some summary data points:

"EIA’s projections show how advances in technology are driving oil and natural gas production, renewables penetration, and demand-side efficiencies and reshaping the energy future," said EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski. "The variation across the analysis cases of projected net energy export levels—as well as other findings in AEO2017— demonstrates the importance of considering the full set of AEO cases.”

Alternative cases incorporate different key assumptions, reflecting market, technology, resource, and policy uncertainties that may affect future energy markets.

Other key findings:

• Energy consumption is consistent across all AEO cases, bounded by the High and Low Economic Growth cases. In the Reference case, total energy consumption increases 5% between 2016 and 2040. As a significant portion of energy consumption is related to economic activity, energy consumption is projected to increase by approximately 11% in the High Economic Growth case, over 2016-40, and remain nearly flat in the Low Economic Growth Case. In all AEO cases, the electric power sector remains the largest consumer of primary energy.

• Energy production ranges from nearly flat in the Low Oil and Gas Resource and Technology case, to nearly 50% growth over 2016-40 in the High Resource and Technology Case. Unlike energy consumption, which varies less across AEO cases, projections of energy production vary widely. Production growth is dependent on technology, resource, and market conditions. Total energy production increases by more than 20% in the Reference case, from 2016 through 2040, led by increases in crude oil and natural gas production.

• Energy related carbon dioxide emissions decline in most AEO cases, with the highest emissions projected in the No Clean Power Plan case. All of the AEO2017 cases except the No Clean Power Plan case include the Clean Power Plan (CPP). 

Publication methodology:

• In order to better focus EIA’s resources on expanding its understanding of the rapidly evolving energy markets, as well as to better represent new information in EIA’s models and publications, starting with AEO2015, EIA has adopted a two-year release cycle for the AEO. A full edition .... is produced every second year. In years between the full editions, a shorter edition provides a smaller number of cases summarized in annotated presentation slides, with the standard set of AEO browser tables and spreadsheets containing the detailed modeling results. 
• AEO2017 is a shorter edition of the AEO. EIA continues to update and refine the market dynamics and technologies in future AEOs, especially with the projection extended to 2050.The projections from the AEO2017 Reference and alternative cases are available at http://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo. 

Re-Posting: Job Growth Anemic And It Was All In Services -- Think Fast Food; Manufacturers Lost Jobs; Also Note Huge Miss By Economists (Again)-- January 5, 2017

Jobs:

• first-time claims fall sharply: 28,000 to seasonally adjusted 235,000; lowest level since mid-November; second lowest since late 1973; economists expected 260,000 initial claims -- another huge miss; four-week rolling average fell by 5,750 to 256,750
• another poor payroll add: private payrolls climbed by 153,000 (see magic numbers); forecast was 175,000; the November number was revised to a 215,000 gain; manufacturers reduced headcounts by 16,000; service providers increased by 169,000

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. It is also not a music site, and it certainly is not a dance site.

For oil and gas sector investors:  From 24/7 Wall Street: Merrill Lynch’s 5 Top Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks for 2017 --

• Anadarko Petroleum
• ConocoPhillips (one of top five operators in the Williston Basin)
• Continental Resources (ditto)
• Hess (ditto)
• Devon Energy

When one looks at that very, very short list, I see "Bakken" more than "Permian."

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CO2 Rise Is Surging -- 

Not From Cow Farts But From Volcanic Activity

Hawaii's Kilauea (pronounced "kill-a-whale" but like French, the "l" is silent) is spewing CO2 into the atmosphere. Hawaii's most active volcano is currently putting on quite a show, as noted over at CNBC this morning.

For those actually following the science, from livescience.com:

Until the end of the 20^th century, the academic consensus was that this volcanic output was tiny — a fiery speck against the colossal anthropogenic footprint. Recently, though, volcanologists have begun to reveal a hidden side to our leaking planet.

Exactly how much CO₂ passes through the magmatic vents in our crust might be one of the most important questions that Earth science can answer. Volcanoes may have been overtaken in the carbon stakes, but in order to properly assess the consequences of human pollution, we need the reference point of the natural background. And we're getting there; the last twenty years have seen huge steps in our understanding of how, and how much CO₂ leaves the deep Earth. But at the same time, a disturbing pattern has been emerging.

In 1992, it was thought that volcanic degassing released something like 100 million tons of CO₂ each year. Around the turn of the millennium, this figure was getting closer to 200. The most recent estimate, released this February, comes from a team led by Mike Burton, of the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology – and it’s just shy of 600 million tons. It caps a staggering trend: A six-fold increase in just two decades. 
These inflating figures, I hasten to add, don't mean that our planet is suddenly venting more CO₂.

Humanity certainly is; but any changes to the volcanic background level would occur over generations, not years. The rise we’re seeing now, therefore, must have been there all along: As scientific progress is widening our perspective, the daunting outline of how little we really know about volcanoes is beginning to loom large.

I suppose if they could "plug" erupting volcanoes with farting cows, warmists could kill two problems at one time. 

Global Warming To Bury US In Snow; Trump Rally Sends Annual Auto Sales Into Record Book -- January 5, 2017

DAPL weather: -15 degrees in Minot, ND, this a.m. Had it not been for global warming, it would have been -17 degrees.

Huge winter storm Helena to dump snow across the US: of course, this was predicted back in 1994 by the warmists, that this would happen. "Snow days" across the nation.

Setting records: it's official. At 53.1 inches (so far, and there are still six more months in this year's snow season) that is the most snowfall ever accumulated to date. The 1993 - 1994 snowfall season, July 1, through January 2, held the record at 49.3 inches.

Another record in Bismarck was set Monday, with 21 inches of snow depth — the deepest the city has ever had during the month of January. It’s tied for the third deepest of all time, with 21 inches in 2010. March 1975 takes second with 27 inches of snow and February 1979 is at the top with 28 inches.

New tag at the bottom of the blog: "Flooding_2017."

Jobs:

• first-time claims fall sharply: 28,000 to seasonally adjusted 235,000; lowest level since mid-November; second lowest since late 1973; economists expected 260,000 initial claims -- another huge miss; four-week rolling average fell by 5,750 to 256,750
• another poor payroll add: private payrolls climbed by 153,000 (see magic numbers); forecast was 175,000; the November number was revised to a 215,000 gain; manufacturers reduced headcounts by 16,000; service providers increased by 169,000

Auto sales: Trump's December auto sales rally propels annual sales into record books. "Robust demand for trucks and year-end incentives help auto makers post solid December sales." -- WSJ.

Re-posting: from Rigzone -- the biggest oil and/or gas industry surprise of 2016.

Politicized: it looks like Trump was right or certainly worthy of discussion -- the US intelligence agencies have been politicized -- discussion on CNBC this a.m. IRS, DOJ, CIA (Benghazi) all under discussion. Former Senator Mitchell (Maine) blames the internet; says it's human nature for everyone (including spy agencies) to be politicized -- "don't just blame the politicians and bureaucrats."

Israel. One-quarter of US Senators break with Obama on vote against Israel in the UN. Ten US Senators sign letter of displeasure over UN censure of Israel. One-quarter. All ten. Including the senior senator from New York state. I'm shocked. Shocked.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Not too many days ago I suggested the sectors that would do well in the market under Trump. Today, in The Wall Street Journal: defense firms cash in amid soaring demand for munitions.

Kuwait starts to feel the pinch: increasing open opposition to austerity, WSJ.

Mexico: looting over anger at 20% increase in price of gasoline. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

	1/5/2017	01/05/2016	01/05/2015	01/05/2014	01/05/2013
Active Rigs	40	58	170	184	179

RBN Energy: why did the normal butane market go on a holiday bender?

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The Market

Apple's App Store sets record: $240 million in sales on New Year's Day, its biggest sales day ever. Apple's $3 billion in App Store purchases in December also broke a holiday-season record. 

Barnes & Noble: cuts forecast amid holiday sales decline. Cites lower traffic, reduced art-supplies sales, and lack of a blockbuster album. Another Geico Rock nominee for the 2017 award? This is what the CEO of Barnes and Noble said (I guess this is why he gets paid the big bucks):

“There will be less retail stores 20 years from now,” he added. “The question is which ones will survive and what will be the attributes that make customers come.”

Craftsman: wow. Sears sells its Craftsman brand -- that was #1 reason I shopped Sears years ago. $900 million for Craftsman. Will also close 150 stores. 

WTI on opening: up about 0.7%. $53.71. 

Opening: Dow 30 down a bit, down about 20 points. NASDAQ up. Crawler says oil, gold "up." Energy on the "upside." Macy's, Kohl's dragging the market down.