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Friday, December 15, 2017

The Market And Energy Page, T+238 -- December 15, 2017

Market: on track for Dow 30 to close at a new record. Huge volume.

Global Data, global reserves: top ten countries by crude reserves (includes graphic)
  • US, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, Canada, Kuwait, Iran, UAE, Brazil, China
  • US #1 in crude oil reserves
    • unconventional oil reserves: 9.2% (45.8 billion bbls)
    • oil sands reserves: 6.7% (33.3 billion bbls)
      heavy oil reserves: 4.5% (22.2 billion bbls)
  • US: top among those with largest remaining crude and condensate reserves
    • 91.1 billion bbls expected to be economically recovered in the the US
  • other top four:
    • Saudi Arabia: 77.4 billion bbls
    • Iraq: 71.8 billion bbls
    • Russia: 70.6 billion bbls
  • remaining 14.1% (70.3 billion bbls) of remaining reserves
    • UAE: lowest remaining break-even oil price at $4/bbl for shallow water developments
    • US: highest break-even oil price at $32/bbl
  • over 77.1% of the ten countries' remaining reserves (383 billion bbls) will be produced from onshore fields
    • UAE: lowest remaining break-even oil price at $3/bbl for onshore developments
    • Canada: highest remaining break-even oil price at $31/bbl for onshore developments
  • ultra-deepwater developments
    • 30.3 billion bbls or remaining reserves, spread between two countries
    • US: remaining break-even oil price -- $33
    • Brazil: remaining break-even oil price -- $37

Global Data, Russia: Russian upstream projects required $100 billion by 2020 to maintain stable production (some numbers rounded)
  • an average of $35 billion/year in capital expenditure over next three years
  • 1,673 oil and gas fields in Russia
    • traditional oil fields: $55 billion over three years
    • heavy oil fields: $7 billion over three years
    • delta between $62 billion and $100 billion not explained
  • onshore projects: 85% of the $100 billion upstream CAPEX ($88 billion by 2020)
  • shallow water projects: $15 billion over the same period
Venezuela: pulls out of refinery joint venture in Cuba; Cuba now has full ownership of its Cienfuegos oil refinery.

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