December NDIC Hearing Dockets Have Been Posted -- December 5, 2017

Quick: what is the number one source of California's methane emissions? Answer and link to be posted later. Answer at this post.

Goldman Sachs forecast for oil: backwardation, WTI prices:

• previously for 2018: $55
• current forecast for 2018: $57.50 (could rise somewhat if OPEC successful at drawing down more than expected
• 2019: $55 (as shale producers respond to better prices)
• 2020: $50

The Bloomberg Gadfly tens to support the Goldman position. From the Gadfly:

• a record: Money managers' net length in three big crude-oil contracts -- West Texas Intermediate traded on Nymex and the Intercontinental Exchange and the latter's Brent contract -- stood at 989.9 million barrels as of Friday, a record
• OPEC's cuts interplay
• short-cycle production from US shale
• longer-cycle output from Canada and Brazil
• global demand
• result? the 2018 market -- despair on one end; elation on the other
• the range: $20 - $25/bbl or roughly $45 to $65 in terms of WTI
• further gains require catalysts
• OPEC counting heavily on stronger demand or lackluster US production growth

December dockets have been posted. I will get to them later today. The NDIC link is here. Highlights have been posted.

Market: futures look nice.

*********************************

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$57.16↓	12/5/2017	12/05/2016	12/05/2015	12/05/2014	12/05/2013
Active Rigs	53	39	64	188	191

RBN Energy: strong CAPEX boost by ConocoPhillips headlines early 2018 guidance.