Active Rigs Up; WTI Up -- T+333; December 20, 2017; Could We See $58-WTI By The End Of The Year?

Updates

Later, 3:47 p.m. CT: there it is -- WTI closed above $58 today; closed at about $58.05. Whoo-hoo.

Later, 11:44 a.m. CT: earlier this morning when WTI was about $57.77 I asked whether we would see $58-WTI by the end of the year. At the moment, "we" are three pennies from $58-WTI. Just saying.

Original Post

2018 US Crude Oil Production

Global Demand

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NOG 

4Q17 Update

• raising fourth quarter production guidance; now expecting average daily production to increase by 4% to 6% over third quarter 2017, compared to prior guidance indicating flat sequential production at the mid-point
• now expect to add approximately 5 to 6 net wells to production during the fourth quarter resulting in 2017 net well additions of approximately 15 to 16 net wells
• fourth quarter oil differential expected to improve by $1.50 per barrel versus the mid-point of prior guidance; now expecting a ( $5.00 ) per barrel of oil differential for the quarter
• wells in process have increased by 6.6 net wells during 2017, from 13.4 net wells as of December 31, 2016 to 20 net wells as of November 30, 2017

Preliminary 2018 Production and CAPEX

• the Board has approved a preliminary 2018 capital budget of up to $176 million , which contemplates 20 to 22 net wells added to production during 2018
• based on this preliminary budget, 2018 annual production is expected to increase by 10% to 14% when compared to 2017
• the Board is also targeting a 10% to 15% reduction in general and administrative expenses when compared to 2017 levels 

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Saudi Arabia

2018 budget announced, links everywhere including Forbes. Data points:

• highest budget ever; $261 billion vs $250 billion in 2017
• to balance budget in only six years
• only six European countries have larger budgets than Saudi Arabia (does not include Russia)
• suffered recession in 2017; GDP dropped 5%
• had planned to accelerate smaller subsidies but have now extended them; e.g., gasoline subsidies; see Bloomberg link;
• has never collected personal income taxes; will now implement new fees and taxes, most notably a value-added tax
• the budget does not provide the price of oil the country used when establishing the budget, but outside analysts suggest $50 - $55 will cover the budget

Will freeze more bank accounts. Link at Bloomberg. 

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Active rigs:

$57.77↑	12/20/2017	12/20/2016	12/20/2015	12/20/2014	12/20/2013
Active Rigs	54	41	64	182	192

RBN Energy: Alberta gas producers, prices dogged by oversupply, transportation constraints.