New Poll; Results Of Current Poll: Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Anticipating today:

• the Director's Cut, tentatively scheduled to be released yesterday, was not released; maybe today; it is very, very rare for the DC to come out later than the 15th of the month
• EIA's weekly petroleum report: released at 10:30 a.m. ET

Coming off confidential list today:

• 33534, SI/NC, MRO, Bronett 14-7H, Bailey, no production data, 
• 33000, SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dressler 6-36-25-158N-100W, Dublin, no production data, 
• 32979, SI/NC, BR, Dodge 3D MBH, Dimmick Lake, no production data, 
• 32789, 1,016, QEP, MHA 2-27-34H-148-92R, Heart Butte, 51 stages; 10.5 million lbs, t5/17; cum 74K 9/17
• 31462, 2,748, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-36C-25-7H, McGregory Buttes, 33 stages; 4.9 million lbs, t5/17; cum 169K 9/17; see graphics at this site;
• 31346, SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dressler 3-36-25-158N-100W, Dublin, no production data,

Dow futures are down 120 145 points (4:21 a.m. Central Time; updated). Think:

• oil woes
• Buffet slashes IBM holdings
• GE plummeting (although at $17.74, GE not contributing much to the Dow any more)
• Saudi Arabia liquidating (possibly a bigger story than we realize)
• profit-taking (can't wait for 2018 when tax bill might actually be signed)

US Frontier Airlines owner signs for 430 Airbus planes; $50 billion deal. This is the largest deal ever signed by Airbus at the Dubai Air Show. The 430 a/c will be split among Denver-based Frontier; JetSMART of Chile; Volaris of Mexico; and, Wizz Air of Hungary.

Mobile, Alabama wins. Final assembly of the Airbus planes being sold to Frontier et al will be done at the Airbus plant in Mobile, AL, same link.

Emirates: relies solely on the Airbus 380 and the Boeing 777; it is the largest operator of both. Huge maintenance savings by minimizing number of types of a/c. But two different companies -- compete for best price, same link.

Boeing signs deal to supply 225 Boeing 737 MAX 10 a/c to low-cost carrier FlyDubai (same link).

Elon Musk to launch spy satellite tomorrow (Thursday) night.

SpaceX has flown 16 Falcon 9 missions so far in 2017, all of them successful, and 13 of them have featured pinpoint first-stage landings. (During the other three missions, SpaceX did not attempt a rocket landing.)

These landings are part of SpaceX's effort to develop reusable rockets and spacecraft — technology that company founder and CEO Elon Musk has said will slash the cost of spaceflight.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$55.10↓↓	11/15/2017	11/15/2016	11/15/2015	11/15/2014	11/15/2013
Active Rigs	54	39	64	186	183

RBN Energy: US supply-demand balance tightens, despite production surge.

The CME/NYMEX Henry Hub prompt natural gas futures contract last week settled at $3.213/MMBtu, the highest daily settlement since late May 2017. Despite natural gas production climbing nearly 3.0 Bcf/d over the past couple of months to record highs, the U.S. gas supply and demand balance has tightened considerably in recent weeks, particularly relative to last year at this time. Moreover, U.S. gas storage inventory has remained below year-ago levels and also moved below the five-year average level in recent weeks. That’s because gas demand has managed to more than offset the incremental supply in the market. How did that happen and what can it tell us about what to expect this winter? Today, we analyze recent shifts in gas market fundamentals.

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Poll Results

I never cared for this poll -- it was too hard to figure out what I was asking. I even thought of simply deleting the poll and not reporting the results, but I figured if I posted it, I had to post the results. I don't plan on looking at the comments.

The poll: with regard to global energy, I feel:

• much more optimist than I did two years ago: 77%
• about the same as I did two years ago: 20%
• much more pessimistic than I did two years ago: 2%

Hmmm .... interesting. That's how I felt -- with the majority --

• for investors, the price of oil was trending up (good)
• for consumers, there would be no shortage of oil, so even if the price of oil melted up, the price of gasoline would remain manageable
• for consumers: no shortage of crude oil, refined products
• for environmentalists: things have settled down; gradual transition from coal to natural gas; nuclear waste less of a long term problem as nuclear energy wanes
• for operators: those who wanted to ban fracking outright -- they were not successful; saner minds prevailed
• for those working in the oil sector: it appears the worst of the bust is over; things gradually turning around

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New Poll

Nebraska regulators tell us that they will release their decision "next week." I'm not sure if that is the last step required for final "approval" of the Keystone XL.

Unless you are living under the Geico rock, you are aware of the current debate in Washington, DC, over the GOP/Trump-inspired tax cut.

That leads us to the next poll. What will be "approved" first:

• the Keystone XL
• the Trump - GOP tax plan
• neither will be approved

For the poll, "approval" for the Keystone means that laying the pipeline will resume.

For the poll, "approval" of the Trump-GOP tax plan occurs when the Senate approves it. (The US House votes first; the Senate follows. It is assumed that if Congress approves the bill, Trump will sign it.)