Re-Posting -- The Numbers Even Surprised Me -- November 26, 2017

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Flashback

With all this talk about "forecasting" and inability of analysts able to understand the Bakken revolution, it was interesting to take a look at EIA's forecast one year ago, forecasting tight oil production for 2017:

The flow of oil from U.S. shale fields is projected by government analysts to fall 14 percent by 2017, as the reverberations of the recent crash in crude prices are felt.

Production from those shale fields had increased exponentially over the past decade as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling techniques were improved.

Shale oil now accounts for more than half of the nation’s crude output. But according to a report Monday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, shale oil output – which peaked in 2015 at 4.9 million barrels a day – will fall to 4.2 million barrels by the end of next year.

The fall is “mainly attributed to low oil prices and the resulting cuts in investment. However, production declines will continue to be mitigated by reductions in cost and improvements in drilling techniques,” the report reads. 

So, a year ago, EIA predicted US shale operators would produce 4.2 million by the end of 2017; in fact, US shale operators will produce in excess of 6 million bbls.

Pretty amazing, on so many levels.

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Another Prediction: 

Sophia Will Make 87% More Pancakes In 2018 Than She Did in 2017