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Tuesday, October 3, 2017

Tuesday, October 3, 2017

Global warming hits upper midwest/west: record snowfall reported in Montana. First blizzard of the season breaks October snow record in Havre, Montana; heavy snow closes I-70 in Colorado.

No excuses this time. No hurricanes; no floods; no war; just players continuing to show their disrespect / displeasure with the flag/national anthem. MNF ratings down 
MNF snared an 8.4 in metered market numbers. That’s down 10% from the Cowboys and Cardinals game of September 25. Year-to-year, the Chiefs’ fourth straight win this season dipped 8% in the early numbers from the comparable Minnesota Vikings’ 24-10 win over the New York Giant on October 3, 2016 – a season of sliding ratings that the NFL wants to forget, but may repeat.
Last week’s MNF went on to score a 5.1 rating among adults 18-49, 13.7 million viewers and win the night among cable and broadcasters. Even with the decline of last night’s game, it is likely that MNF will prove No. 1 for ESPN once again.
Active rigs:

$50.4110/3/201710/03/201610/03/201510/03/201410/03/2013
Active Rigs573368188185

RBN Energy: lower prices dampen oil-weighted profitability in second quarter of 2017.
After posting a whopping $160 billion in losses in 2015-16, the 43 exploration and production companies (E&Ps) whose financial performance we’ve been closely tracking roared back to profitability in the first quarter of 2017 on higher commodity prices and cost savings from drilling efficiencies on high-graded portfolios. However, lower oil prices slowed the earnings train in the second quarter, as total adjusted pre-tax operating profit dropped 11.6% to $8.0 billion.
Understandably, the 21 oil-focused producers in our universe suffered the biggest impact from depressed crude realizations, reporting a 29% decline in operating profits to just $1.9 billion. The good news is that oil peer group earnings remained solidly in the black, increasing the odds that 2017 will be their first profitable year since 2014. Today, we analyze the results for the individual companies in our Oil-Weighted Peer Group.
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The Energy And Market Page

Everything I need to know about the future of EVs: Warren Buffett takes a 40% stake in Flying J.
Markets: open at record highs; extend rally. T+ 256.

Auto sales, September, Ford: link --
  • Ford sales up almost 9%
  • F-series truck sales up over 20%
  • transit van sales gain 25% (proxy for US economy)
  • Lincoln SUV sales up over 10%
Auto sales, September, EVs: link (most report today; some report later in the week) --
  • overall, not much change from previous month, except with Tesla
    • Tesla, Model S: jump from 2,150 to 4,860 (month-over-month)
    • Tesla, Model X: jump from 1,575 to 3,120 (month-over-month); Tesla cut prices on the "X"
    • Tesla, Model 3: guidance -- ramp up to 1,500 in the month of September; actual: 115, up from 75 in August, 2017
  • Chevrolet Volt steady at around 1,500
  • Chevrolet Bolt rising, up from 1,000 earlier this year; now up to 2,600
  • Nissan Leaf, sales decreased significantly, from 1,154 to 1,055
Auto sales, September, GM: link --
  • best September US retail performance since 2007
  • 12% increase year-over-year increase in total sales in September, at 279,397 vehicles
  • 17% increase at Chevrolet; 9% increase at GMC
  • crossover deliveries were up 43%
  • trucks up 10%
  • but: passenger gars were down 11%
Auto sales, September, Fiat Chrysler: link --  huge disappointment
  • sales dropped 10%; reflected double-digit declines for Chrysler, Dodge, and Fiat
  • RAM truck sales largely remained level
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The Market

NYSE, new highs, 182 216 223 243 260 304, including -- BP; BRK-B; D. R. Horton; GM; Navistar; Phillips 66; RDS-B;
  • new lows: 12
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The Literature Page

Wow, for the first time since the 2016 presidential election, it seems The New Yorker has changed. I'm not sure if this represents a trend or if this is simply a one-off. The most recent issue of The New Yorker:
  • the cover appears, at least on the surface, to have nothing to do with President Trump
  • unless I missed one, there are no political cartoons (not too long ago, without saying they were going to do it, every cartoon in The New Yorker was about Trump, and yes, in a negative light)
  • there was not one feature article on Hillary or Trump
  • only the lead essay in "The Talk Of The Town" was about Trump and that was clearly not unexpected, and won't change
  • personal highlights from this week's issue
    • in "Life and Letters," "Cather People: visiting the prairie that inspired America's great novelist of landscape," by  Alex Ross. And, of course, that had to have been about Willa Cather; the only novel of hers I have read, My Antonia" I read on an Amtrak trip from Portland, OR, to Williston, ND
    • a book review, "Shot of Courage: Ulysses S. Grant, defended," by Adam Gopnik. I outlined Grant's memoirs years ago and developed a study guide of the Civil War based on his memoirs; over the weekend I read parts of Mark Twain's autobiography to include how he (Twain) came to own the publishing rights of Twain's memoirs
    • the art review was of Auguste Rodin who is said to have sent sculpture tumbling into modernity; decades ago while hitchhiking through Europe, I spent half a day in the Rodin museum in Paris; it was hard to find; my feet were incredibly tired; and I was incredibly hungry
    • a movie review, "American Made," starring Tom Cruise; the movie looks very, very good, but the star seems to me to be possibly one of the creepiest guys "in Hollywood" right now, so, no, I have no plans to see the movie

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