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Wednesday, October 18, 2017

To Re-Balance: 37 Weeks -- October 18, 2017; Gasoline In The DFW Area As Low As $2.08; Generally About $2.29 / Gallon

US crude oil inventories: again, the original estimates were way off (posted last night). The EIA weekly petroleum report (a dynamic link) shows that there was a significant (?) decline in US crude oil inventories: declining by 5.7 million bbls. The number of weeks to "re-balance" decreased from 40 weeks to 37 weeks with that data:


Week
Date
Drawdown
Storage
Weeks to RB
Week 0
Apr 26, 2017

529.0
180
Week 1
May 3, 2017
0.9
528.0
198
Week 2
May 10, 2017
6
522.0
50
Week 3
May 17, 2017
1.8
520.2
59
Week 4
May 24, 2017
4.4
515.8
51
Week 5
May 31, 2017
6.4
509.9
41
Week 6
June 7, 2017
-3.3
513.2
60
Week 7
June 14, 2017
1.7
511.5
57
Week 8
June 21, 2017
2.5
509.0
62
Week 9
June 28, 2017
-0.2
509.2
71
Week 10
July 6, 2017
6.3
502.9
58
Week 11
July 12, 2017
7.6
495.3
47
Week 12
July 19, 2017
4.7
490.6
43
Week 13
July 26, 2017
7.2
483.4
38
Week 14
August 2, 2017
1.5
481.9
45
Week 15
August 9, 2017
6.5
475.4
35
Week 16
August 16, 2017
8.9
466.5
30
Week 17
August 23, 2017
3.3
463.2
29
Week 18
August 30, 2017
5.4
457.8
27
Week 19
September 7, 2017
-4.6
462.4
32
Week 20
September 13, 2017
-5.9
468.2
39
Week 21
September 20, 2017
-4.6
472.8
46
Week 22
September 27, 2017
1.8
471.0
46
Week 23
October 4, 2017
6.0
465.0
41
Week 24
October 12, 2017
2.8
462.2
40
Week 25
October 18, 2017
5.7
456.5
37


Other data from the weekly petroleum report:
  • refineries still operating well below capacity, at 84.5%
  • gasoline production increased last week, averaging 10 million bbls per day
  • total motor gasoline inventories increased 0.9 million bbls last week
We will see the graph tomorrow:
  • over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplies averaged over 9.3 million bbls per day, up by 2.9% from the same period last week
Here, in the DFW area, the increased gasoline inventories is reflected in price:
  • the average price seems to be about $2.29 / gallon for regular unleaded gasoline
  • easy to find gasoline at $2.08 / gallon but that is the lowest I've seen

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