Number Of Weeks To Re-Balance Increases By Two Weeks; Back Up To 39 Weeks -- October 25, 2017

This is what was reported last night:

We will get the EIA data tomorrow, but tonight the API is reporting:

• a small build in US crude oil inventories (519,000 bbls)
• but, S&P Platts is forecasting a 425,000-bbl drawdown

Either way, less than a million-bbls change one way or the other is inconsequential.

Meanwhile, API reports a huge drawdown of gasoline:

• a drawdown of 5.753 million bbls
• forecast: a much smaller draw of 2.3 million bbls

WTI/Brent prices up initially on talks of global conflict, but "then reality set in, as robust supply capacity from OPEC and US shale loomed large in skittish investor minds."

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Let's See What The EIA Reported

Weeks To Re-Balance Increases

Dynamic link here. 

• crude oil increased by 0.9 million bbls -- so much for re-balancing efforts; now at 457.3 million bbls (the API was close: the API estimated a build of 519,000 bbls)
• refinery utilization: still only 88% but increasing
• gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.9 million b/d
• crude oil imports increased slightly
• total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged over 19.6 million b/d, down by 3.6% from same period last year (OPEC is counting on demand bailing them out -- not seeing that yet)
• we will see the graph for gasoline demand tomorrow
• after the report, WTI was down minimally, down about 0.5% in price 

Number of weeks to re-balance:

Week	Date	Drawdown	Storage	Weeks to RB
Week 0	Apr 26, 2017		529.0	180
Week 1	May 3, 2017	0.9	528.0	198
Week 2	May 10, 2017	6	522.0	50
Week 3	May 17, 2017	1.8	520.2	59
Week 4	May 24, 2017	4.4	515.8	51
Week 5	May 31, 2017	6.4	509.9	41
Week 6	June 7, 2017	-3.3	513.2	60
Week 7	June 14, 2017	1.7	511.5	57
Week 8	June 21, 2017	2.5	509.0	62
Week 9	June 28, 2017	-0.2	509.2	71
Week 10	July 6, 2017	6.3	502.9	58
Week 11	July 12, 2017	7.6	495.3	47
Week 12	July 19, 2017	4.7	490.6	43
Week 13	July 26, 2017	7.2	483.4	38
Week 14	August 2, 2017	1.5	481.9	48
Week 15	August 9, 2017	6.5	475.4	35
Week 16	August 16, 2017	8.9	466.5	30
Week 17	August 23, 2017	3.3	463.2	29
Week 18	August 30, 2017	5.4	457.8	27
Week 19	September 7, 2017	-4.6	462.4	32
Week 20	September 13, 2017	-5.9	468.2	39
Week 21	September 20, 2017	-4.6	472.8	46
Week 22	September 27, 2017	1.8	471.0	46
Week 23	October 4, 2017	6.0	465.0	41
Week 24	October 12, 2017	2.8	462.2	40
Week 25	October 18, 2017	5.7	456.5	37
Week 26	October 25, 2017	-0.9	457.3	39

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Graphic Confusion

This is an accurate graph, of course, and it is very dramatic, but it can also be a bit confusing. Some folks may have to spend some time looking at this graph a) to figure out what it is saying; b) what it means going forward; and, c) to figure out the point of the graph in the first place: