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Wednesday, October 18, 2017

The Energy And Market Page, Part 2, T+270 -- Wow, Market Surges Over 100 Points; Solidly Above 23,000 -- Trump Not Mentioned

CNBC: OPEC apparently wants to extend production cuts for another nine months.
  • OPEC + Russia: currently they have agreed to keep 1.8 million bopd through March, 2018
  • the extension would take them to the end of December, 2018
  • not likely to deepen the cuts
  • the extension is pretty much a no-brainer but Iraq, Iran, and a few others will say one thing, do another
Motley Fool: five scenarios that could push oil prices back to $100. None of them are likely to happen and if any of the scenarios happen, unlikely to push oil prices back to $100. The most likely: the need to increase production by 2.8 million bopd as early as next year to meet demand based on current supply/demand projections. But 2.8 million bopd is easy:
  • unfettered, North Dakota could go to 2 million bopd in less than a few months (up from one million bopd now)
  • Texas (the Permian and the Eagle Ford) could easily add another 1.5 million bopd
  • OPEC: note the 1.8 million bopd above
  • SCOOP/STACK; Niobrara; Alaska: could easily add another 0.5 million bopd or more
Boom: by the way, if North Dakota goes toward 2 million bopd in 2018, "Katy, bar the doors."

Dow 30: surges 113 points on opening. Late afternoon trading, up 160 points.

NYSE, new highs, 101, including -- JPM, UnitedHealth Group
  • new lows: 30

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