Kind Of Interesting -- EIA' s Latest Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) -- September 12, 2017

Oil Markets:

• Industry watchers across the sector will have to grapple with uncertainty regarding the timeline for the return to normal operations for critical energy infrastructure, including refineries, in the coming weeks and months.
• U.S. crude oil production is forecast to average 9.3 million barrels per day in 2017 and 9.8 million barrels per day in 2018. Downward revisions to the forecast partly reflect the effects of Hurricane Harvey.
• EIA continues to expect growing oil output, with crude oil production forecast to reach an all-time high of 9.8 million barrels per day in 2018, topping the old 1970 record of 9.6 million barrels per day.

Gasoline/Refined Products:

• Following Harvey, the national average price of gasoline hit $2.68 a gallon, the highest in two years. EIA expects that to fall to an average of $2.61 a gallon for all of September and to $2.40 by October as, the energy supply system returns to more normal operations.
• We saw marked decreases in refinery operations following Hurricane Harvey, but operations are beginning to ramp up. EIA expects refinery runs in September to average 15.3 million barrels per day, well below the August level, but runs should increase into October.
• EIA expects that the loss of refined product production—because of reduced refinery operations—will be made up for through a combination of lower net exports and larger-than-normal inventory draws.

Natural Gas:

• Given NOAA’s forecast of a colder winter this year compared with last year, EIA expects natural gas prices to average almost $3.30 per million Btu this winter, up about 30 cents from last winter.

Electricity:

• Higher natural gas prices will likely contribute to a decrease in its share of total utility-scale electricity generation in 2017, falling by 3 percentage points compared to 2016. In contrast, coal will increase its share by 1 percentage point in 2017.
• EIA projects the electricity generation shares of natural gas and coal to remain largely unchanged in 2018 at averages of 31% and 32%, respectively.

Coal:

• U.S. coal production in 2018 is projected to reach its highest levels in three years because of expected growth in electric power sector demand. (The coal-powered car will start to impact coal production in the US.)

Renewables:

• Solar will continue to make gains in electricity generating capacity through 2018, with an expected 11 gigawatt increase from 2016’s 22 gigawatt capacity.