Are Higher California Margins Worth The Hassle For Refiners? -- RBN Energy -- September 22, 2017

Updates

Later, 11:27 a.m. Central Time: see first comment. I've brought the reader's comments up here for easier access:

The reader's comments:

Californians pay dearly for their environmental activism.

• Retail price of regular gasoline:
• California: $3.01
• Texas: $2.16
• https://s26.postimg.org/tfessjo49/Captura_de_pantalla_1457.png
• Retail price of industrial electricity:
• California: 12.07₡ per kilowatthour
• Texas: 5.22₡ per kilowatthour
• https://s26.postimg.org/s471k2sih/Captura_de_pantalla_1389.png
• Do the high energy prices have anything to do with the following?
• Growth in economy 2006 to 2015:
• California: 12.6%
• Texas: 35.8%
• https://s26.postimg.org/azyx8vzdl/Captura_de_pantalla_535.png
• California has the highest real poverty rate in the United States (adjusted for prices and other local factors):
• https://s26.postimg.org/3le6u92vt/Captura_de_pantalla_990.png
• Violent crime in California in 2016 was up 15.4% over 2014, and property crime was up 5.8%
• http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article167879952.html

This is important enough to be posted more than once or twice. Expect to see this data posted at least a few more times over the next few months.
 

Original Post

Active rigs:

$50.45→	9/22/2017	09/22/2016	09/22/2015	09/22/2014	09/22/2013
Active Rigs	57	33	68	196	185

RBN Energy: Are higher California margins worth the hassle for refiners? Bottom line:

Caught in a stifling regulatory environment and with the state chipping away at their market share in favor of electric cars and renewables, California’s refiners have to weigh the rewards of higher margins today against a questionable future tomorrow.

During years like 2015 when the Torrance refinery was offline, higher margins benefited those refineries left standing. And similar price spikes are bound to recur whenever unexpected outages bring down one or more plants in the future.

But such boosts in margin are limited and random in nature and arguably don’t compensate for an environment in which plant upgrades and expansions face a minefield of regulatory constraints. Unfortunately, the situation is unlikely to improve as electricity and renewables grab a bigger bite of the transport fuel market.

Saudi: their challenges never end. Russia is now adding more pipeline to China, stepping up race with Saudis -- Reuters via Rigzone.

Chinese oil refineries are gearing up to receive more Russian oil transported through an expanded Siberian pipeline network from January, likely cementing Russia's position as China's largest oil supplier in a close race with Saudi Arabia.

The planned ramp-up in pipeline supplies agreed in contracts signed in 2013 comes amid a pledge by producers to cut output to tighten global markets and illustrates the nip-and-tuck contest between the world's top oil exporters, Russia and Saudi Arabia, for dominance in the biggest crude importer, China.

Russia's top oil producer Rosneft said it is set to supply under government agreement 30 million tonnes of ESPO Blend crude to PetroChina in 2018, or 600,000 barrels per day (bpd), an increase of 50 percent from this year, after completion of the second East Siberia Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline, which has a main spur to Chinese border town Mohe.

"Rosneft has enough resources to supply under all its existing contracts, including the planned increase of supplies to China by 10 million tones next year," Rosneft said in a statement emailed to Reuters on Thursday.

Top state oil firm PetroChina has designated three refineries in northeast China as the main receivers of Russian oil, with one of them undergoing an $880 million upgrade.

California Blue, Roy Orbison