For The Archives -- The Beginning Of The End For The Bakken -- Art Berman -- August 11, 2017

Updates

February 15, 2019: new production record set in North Dakota.  From The Bismarck Tribune:

North Dakota oil operators took advantage of mild December weather and produced a record 1.4 million barrels per day that month, according to the Department of Mineral Resources.

While oil production grew nearly 2 percent, natural gas production jumped 5 percent in December to a record 2.65 billion cubic feet per day, according to the preliminary figures.

The previous high, 1.39 million barrels per day, was set in October.

July 15, 2018: I provide updates for this story at this post.

Original Post

For the archives.

I recall seeing this article when it was first posted some time ago, but elected not to post it. A reader recently referenced it so I thought it best to post the link for archival purposes.

This is Art Berman suggesting that data in December, 2016, suggested that we were seeing the "beginning of the end" for the Bakken. The article begins:

It’s the beginning of the end for the Bakken Shale play.

The decline in Bakken oil production that started in January 2015 is probably not reversible. New well performance has deteriorated, gas-oil ratios have increased and water cuts are rising. Much of the reservoir energy from gas expansion is depleted and decline rates should accelerate. More drilling may increase daily output for awhile but won’t resolve the underlying problem of poorer well performance and declining per-well reserves.

December 2016 production fell 92,000 barrels per day (b/d)–a whopping 9% single-month drop. Over the past two years, output has fallen 285,000 b/d (23%). This was despite an increase in the number of producing wells that reached an all-time high of 13,520 in November. That number fell by 183 wells in December.

Perhaps he mentioned it, but if so, I missed it:

• an emphasis that this was December data (winters can be tough in North Dakota); and,
• the Saudi surge had resulted in huge drop in price of WTI

I think the article or variations of the article have appeared elsewhere.

Art Berman is a proponent of peak oil.

The NDIC Director's Cut is scheduled to come out today. It will be interesting to see where the Bakken is today. [Update: June data released in the Director's Cut today.]

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Echo Beach

Such a depressing story (the Art Berman story above). Time for some music. Art Berman caught in his own echo chamber?

Echo Beach, Martha and the Muffins
Why the Muffins, you ask? Probably because all the animal and insect names had been taken.