The Trump Rally Continues, The Political Page, T+187 -- July 26, 2017

I am adding one more thought to a note I posted the other day, the "trickle-down" effect:

From a few days ago with one new paragraph:

I think Jamie Dimon was right: with Trump's agenda, the economy will grow very, very fast; without Trump's agenda, the economy won't grow any more slowly; in other words, Dimon thinks that even if Trump's agenda is stopped cold, the US economy will continue growing.

1. ENERGY: I think cheap energy prices are percolating throughout the entire economy.

2. MONEY: Cheap money continues to percolate through the entire economy. Even Janet Yellen seems more dovish all of a sudden; she either sees something that scares her or she wants to keep her job.

3. REGULATIONS: I have a note from a businessman in ND who says the change in federal regulations are already affecting how fast contractors can get things done in ND. In some cases, EPA, etc. would have slowed project start dates as long as eleven years; they're now seeing these delays going down to two or three years.

4. ATTITUDE: Amazon, Apple, Google, Tesla, JPMorgan, etc., all have a huge appetite to keep growing. Making America Great may sound like a simple slogan but it too percolates through the whole economy. Folks don't want to be left standing at the depot when the train pulls out. And several trains have already left the station. Amazon hit new highs yesterday. NASDAQ hit the 50th record high since Trump's election or something like that.

5. BALKANIZED: Whatever the US does as a whole, the economy, like politics, is going to become more regionalized. Despite my continued negative comments on California has, it remains a growth engine in technology. Texas cannot be held back. RBN Energy said Florida got a new natural gas pipeline in for the first time in decades and I don't think Florida can be held back. Financial institutions in Boston -- not going to be held back. The recent CNBC story said Minnesota was a great place to start a new business and Washington State was the best state to start a new business, so even those states are doing something right.

6. TRICKLE-DOWN EFFECT: remember, this is about the economy, not the market. As the market continues to reach new highs, investors will take profits and put that money into the economy. Minimum IRA withdrawals will be one huge category, but even in areas where withdrawals are not mandatory, effects will be felt. Grandparents will give their grandchildren (and their grandchildren's parents) larger monetary gifts in a rising market.

7. I think if the economy were to turn real ugly, it would have to be a "black swan" as they say -- something that no one expects.

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