The Energy And Market Page, T+180; Part II -- July 19, 2017

Updates

Later, 3:04 p.m. Central Time: all three indices (Dow 30, Nasdaq, S&P 500) set new all-time hights.

Original Post

Futures: wow, did the Dow 30 futures just turn green? If so, incredible. All other major indices also green.

Really? Strong gasoline demand lifts oil but high OPEC supplies temper gains.  So, you're telling me that the "demand" side did its part -- gasoline demand is strong. But the "supply" side -- specifically the OPEC cuts (wink, wink) -- let us down. I'm shocked. Shocked.

EIA: US crude inventories dropped 4.7 million bbls; now down to 490.6 million bbls (not including the SPR).

At this rate of drawdown of US crude oil supplies, we're back to 56 weeks before we re-balance (update: methodology was wrong in some parts of this table; it has been updated and corrected at this post):

Week	Date	Drawdown	Storage	Weeks to RB
Week 0	Apr 26, 2017		529.0	180
Week 1	May 3, 2017	0.9	528.0	178
Week 2	May 10, 2017	6	522.0	29
Week 3	May 17, 2017	1.8	520.2	95
Week 4	May 24, 2017	4.4	515.8	38
Week 5	May 31, 2017	6.4	509.9	41
Week 6	June 7, 2017	-3.3	513.2	60
Week 7	June 14, 2017	1.7	511.5	63
Week 8	June 21, 2017	2.5	509.0	62
Week 9	June 28, 2017	-0.2	509.2	71
Week 10	July 6, 2017	6.3	502.9	58
Week 11	July 12, 2017	7.6	495.3	47
Week 12	July 19, 2017	4.7	490.6	56

Saudi's new city: if it has a name, I missed it. It will be an industrial city between Dammam and Ahsa, at the heart of energy operations, apparently close to Abqaiq, which is in the middle of Dammam and Ahsa. "Pat, I'd like to buy a 'q'."

US weekly energy data to be released today. Forecast:

• US shale production is forecast to rise for the eighth consecutive month
• forecast to climb 112,000 bopd to 5.585 million bopd in August (previously blogged)
• Permian: to produce 2.535 million bopd, up 64,000 bopd
• Eagle Ford: to produce 1.387 million bopd, up 27,000 bopd and the most since February, 2016
• Bakken: to produce 1.043 million bopd, up 3,500 and the most since November, 2016
• US natural gas production is projected to increase to a record 52.9 billion cubic feet per day in August (wasn't it just a day or two ago when we were told US natural gas would not hit a record this year? Whatever)
• projected gas output would increase in all of the big shale basins in August, with the biggest increase from gas in the Marcellus formation

Housing: starts, permits rebound more than expected in June.

Abraxas: will buy 973 net acres in the Delaware Basin; will add 445 acres in Caprito leasehold, 172 acres in ward County, and 356 acres in Reeves, Pecos and Winkler counties. Abraxas will pay $4.3 million in cash and $2 million in shares for the acquisition. In a separate deal, Abraxas will offload acreage in Powder River Basin in Wyoming for $4.6 million. Back-of-the-envelope: $6.3 million / 973 net acres = $6,500/acre in the Permian -- if accurate, a steal of a bargain.