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Thursday, June 29, 2017

The Energy And Market Page, T+160 -- June 29, 2017 -- Peak Oil? What Peak Oil?

COP sells Barnett Shale assets for $305 million. From SeekingAlpha:
  • ConocoPhillips  agrees to sell its interests in the Barnett Shale to an affiliate of Miller Thomson & Partners for $305M
  • COP sees an impact to FY 2017 production guidance of less than 5K boe/day depending on the timing of the closing, and does not expect any material impact to 2017 cash flow or other guidance items as a result of the deal
Argentina's YPF says technology lowering its shale costs. Data points from Reuters:
  • longer horizontals and technology improvement lowering costs
  • problem: lack of infrastructure in its most productive shale field: the remote Vaca Muerta play
  • break-even price: $43/bbl
  • development costs are $12.9/bbl and expected to fall to $10 next year
  • $10 is world-class compared with the Permian shale
  • YPF produces 40,000 bopd; Chevron produces another 20,000 bopd
  • only 2 of Vaca Muert's 19 concessions have moved from pilot to production
Dallas Fed: business activity for oilfield services highest it's been in five quarters. Data points from Rigzone:
  • labor market indexes overall (for oil and gas exploration and production firms and oilfield services firms) increased
  • improving indices include rising employment, employees hours, wages and benefits
  • employment growth was driven by oilfield services firms 
  • 67 percent of respondents expect the oil market to come into balance in 2018 or sooner
  • 55 percent of respondents believe OPEC will continue to limit its oil production beyond March 2018; 45 percent believe OPEC will not
  • on average, respondents expect OPEC will produce 32.3 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2H 2017
  • 87 out of 115 executives said they are looking to use their internal cash flow to finance increased activity 
Tea leaves suggesting OPEC cuts to Asia starting to be seen? From the EIA today:
The difference between high-sulfur residual fuel oil prices in Singapore and crude oil prices in Dubai/Oman has been narrowing since the spring. Low inventories of residual fuel oil in Singapore and lower residual fuel oil production from Russia are likely contributing to the narrowing price spread. --- EIA

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