As Expected: GDPNow Forecast For 2Q17 Slumps After Jobs Report -- June 2, 2017

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Latest forecast: 3.4 percent — June 2, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 3.4 percent on June 2, down from 4.0 percent on June 1.

The forecast for second-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 3.6 percent to 3.1 percent after this morning's employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The model's estimate of the dynamic factor for May—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—fell from 0.72 to 0.17 after the report.