Off The Net For Awhile; Tongue-In-Cheek; Not To Be Taken Seriously -- At Least Not Yet -- February 1, 2017

I'm consistently amazed how inefficient Mother Nature is. Or perhaps, how efficient Bakken tight shale operators are in comparison to Mother Nature.

It has been said that any well taken off-line for any significant period of time will show an increase in production once it's brought back on status. ("Significant period of time" in the oil patch is defined as about 3 - 8 months for purpose of this discussion.)

Here's an example of Mother Nature's inefficiency.

Note the peak production of this well after being fracked in the month of May, 2009: 11,976 bbls, which works out to 14,279 barrels for the full 31 days of the month (in fact, it would have been slightly less due to the severe decline rate of the Bakken).

After being fracked in 2009, after Mother Nature "shut-in" this well for a gazillion years, it's production was about 14,000 bbls in that first month, after which its production plunged to 2,000 bbls/month only six or seven months later.

However, a few years later, this well was taken off-line (not for a gazillion years as Mother Nature had done earlier) but for only a few months -- about six months in fact. After being taken off-line for only six months, look at the production in May, 2013: 14,798 bbls (for a 31-day month that would extrapolate to 15,291 bbls of crude oil.

[Just for the fun of it, boe:
May, 2009: 2,365 + 14,279 = 16,644 boe
May, 2013: 5,002 + 15,291 = 20,293 boe]

After being fracked in early 2009, this well was down to about 2,000 bbl of crude oil/month by the seventh month.

Note, after this well was taken off-line for six months, it's production surged, and remained well above 2,000 bbls of crude oil/month for the next two years, in fact jumping to over 4,000 bbls in two consecutive months. 

For newbies: this is all done with tongue in cheek. Pay no attention to this. It was just something that caught my attention: how much production in a Bakken well can improve by just taking it off-line for a few months. Of course, it begs a question. In fact, it begs a lot of questions.

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	4132	3995	0	732	0	732
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2015	2	322	665	18	413	413	0
BAKKEN	3-2015	27	1951	1804	221	3065	3011	54
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	1917	1896	219	2869	2790	79
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	1895	1870	242	2684	2637	47
BAKKEN	12-2014	31	1631	1632	291	3537	3537	0
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	1687	1646	337	2419	2399	20
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	1994	2245	349	3822	3802	20
BAKKEN	9-2014	30	1586	1650	562	3764	3760	4
BAKKEN	8-2014	29	4188	4464	856	8337	8303	34
BAKKEN	7-2014	31	4491	3977	1011	9142	7115	2027
BAKKEN	6-2014	30	1821	2195	616	3793	3201	592
BAKKEN	5-2014	31	2208	1817	770	4881	4821	60
BAKKEN	4-2014	12	1105	1075	403	2200	1175	1025
BAKKEN	3-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2014	13	1248	1518	427	3211	0	3211
BAKKEN	1-2014	11	1599	1164	590	1680	0	1680
BAKKEN	12-2013	31	5332	5546	1528	13733	13168	565
BAKKEN	11-2013	30	9035	9648	2028	22446	22446	0
BAKKEN	10-2013	31	6597	6537	1314	11571	11378	193
BAKKEN	9-2013	30	7868	8076	1573	14471	14471	0
BAKKEN	8-2013	31	9881	9578	1930	18210	18210	0
BAKKEN	7-2013	31	12162	12586	2512	21742	21742	0
BAKKEN	6-2013	27	8985	8819	2647	15599	14575	1024
BAKKEN	5-2013	30	14798	14953	8053	29045	17210	11835
BAKKEN	4-2013	4	2836	2032	2648	4477	2416	2061
BAKKEN	3-2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2013	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2012	2	62	254	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2012	26	980	660	740	1799	1799	0
BAKKEN	10-2012	31	1404	1906	717	2498	2498	0
BAKKEN	9-2012	21	1094	1165	233	1493	1493	0
BAKKEN	8-2012	16	728	524	542	1172	1172	0
BAKKEN	7-2012	6	184	245	18	199	199	0
BAKKEN	6-2012	30	951	1603	111	2461	2461	0
BAKKEN	5-2012	31	1324	1129	282	2713	2713	0
BAKKEN	4-2012	30	1364	1484	445	2252	2252	0
BAKKEN	3-2012	24	1310	501	547	1971	1971	0
BAKKEN	2-2012	9	199	916	20	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2012	31	1217	648	218	2232	2232	0
BAKKEN	12-2011	17	1065	1179	367	477	477	0
BAKKEN	11-2011	26	1264	1357	147	1983	1437	546
BAKKEN	10-2011	14	580	1031	148	866	131	735
BAKKEN	9-2011	30	1105	1436	922	2733	2402	331
BAKKEN	8-2011	31	1331	933	384	2761	2751	10
BAKKEN	7-2011	30	1982	1468	518	3539	3539	0
BAKKEN	6-2011	2	205	239	7	240	240	0
BAKKEN	5-2011	25	1301	1398	561	2288	2188	100
BAKKEN	4-2011	5	371	0	210	731	360	371
BAKKEN	3-2011	17	687	965	112	1406	1406	0
BAKKEN	2-2011	28	1267	1453	220	2505	2222	0
BAKKEN	1-2011	31	1430	894	259	2436	2116	320
BAKKEN	12-2010	31	1440	1958	215	3457	2429	387
BAKKEN	11-2010	30	1446	1433	264	5066	3259	0
BAKKEN	10-2010	30	1375	1377	242	2550	2398	40
BAKKEN	9-2010	30	1509	1348	251	3389	3365	0
BAKKEN	8-2010	31	1710	1821	391	2710	1053	1650
BAKKEN	7-2010	11	1636	2155	269	137	137	0
BAKKEN	6-2010	20	1795	1314	683	681	681	0
BAKKEN	5-2010	29	2425	2017	377	4273	4273	0
BAKKEN	4-2010	29	1612	2250	203	1839	1839	0
BAKKEN	3-2010	31	1691	1522	238	2399	2399	0
BAKKEN	2-2010	28	936	975	240	1777	1777	0
BAKKEN	1-2010	27	1541	1193	515	1948	1948	0
BAKKEN	12-2009	30	1620	1627	492	1806	1806	0
BAKKEN	11-2009	28	2582	3246	593	3763	3763	0
BAKKEN	10-2009	29	2482	2141	827	5408	5408	0
BAKKEN	9-2009	30	3343	3248	892	7096	7096	0
BAKKEN	8-2009	18	2799	2413	365	2989	1424	1565
BAKKEN	7-2009	23	3196	3198	570	2170	0	2170
BAKKEN	6-2009	26	4480	4667	790	5600	0	5600
BAKKEN	5-2009	26	11976	11313	1280	11900	0	11900

For future reference, the well:

• 17755, 543, Statoil, Roscoe 2H-8, Banks, t5/09; cum 186K 11/16;