Idle Rambling Comparing Two Wells That Were Not All That Great Early On -- Then Their Production Diverged -- February 26, 2017

This is going to be a long note. It is likely to be confusing. It may not be worth the effort. In a long note, there will be factual and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

These are two QEP wells very, very close to each other and drilled about the same time. They both had similar births. One died early; one is still alive.

The first QEP well; it may have been killed prematurely; it was never all that good to begin with; its production was about 1,000 bbls of oil/month when it was killed (PA). Monthly production data shortly before it was killed:

Monthly Production Data for well #1:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2012	31	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2012	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2012	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2012	0	0	214	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2012	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2012	2	58	0	0	35	0	35
BAKKEN	6-2012	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2012	30	1147	1180	187	1343	1343	0
BAKKEN	4-2012	30	1221	1194	180	1215	1215	0
BAKKEN	3-2012	31	1265	1673	167	1363	1363	0
BAKKEN	2-2012	29	1159	929	110	1066	1066	0
BAKKEN	1-2012	31	1290	1456	145	1151	1151	0
BAKKEN	12-2011	31	1290	1208	150	1282	1282	0

Notice: that well was killed in May, 2012.

The second well was drilled/completed/tested at almost the very same time, in early 2008.

This is well #2. This was its production between December, 2011, and May, 2012, to compare with the well above:

BAKKEN	5-2012	31	940	952	257	791	791	0
BAKKEN	4-2012	30	928	1154	227	367	367	0
BAKKEN	3-2012	31	936	695	237	1279	1279	0
BAKKEN	2-2012	29	1001	1177	257	1320	1320	0
BAKKEN	1-2012	29	1210	1196	287	1553	1553	0
BAKKEN	12-2011	31	909	702	160	680	680	0

That well, well #2, was no better, producing about 1,000 bbls of crude oil / month.

But it was allowed to live.

Look at the production since October, 2015, and to the present. Going from around 1,000 bbls of crude oil / month, it jumped to over 8,000 bbls (extrapolated to full 31 days) in October, 2015:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2016	30	1475	1580	1495	3278	2917	96
BAKKEN	11-2016	28	1593	1170	1615	4108	4108	0
BAKKEN	10-2016	23	1227	1137	1358	2859	2749	96
BAKKEN	9-2016	30	2003	2081	1965	6108	6106	2
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	2561	2978	2413	6833	6832	1
BAKKEN	7-2016	14	1001	689	1278	1266	1251	15
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	2596	2703	2150	4183	4158	25
BAKKEN	5-2016	31	3080	3200	2222	3691	3518	64
BAKKEN	4-2016	30	3402	3387	2554	4808	4439	2
BAKKEN	3-2016	9	1248	1133	1141	1299	1231	0
BAKKEN	2-2016	9	716	658	1377	808	659	54
BAKKEN	1-2016	28	4637	4567	5625	5880	5459	112
BAKKEN	12-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2015	19	3383	3435	1607	4412	3924	121
BAKKEN	10-2015	27	7947	8187	3718	10808	10445	311

I do not know why well #1 was killed and why well #2 was allowed to live. That's unimportant now.

The question is whether well #1 could have come back as strong as #2 came back after it, too, looked like it was never going to do all that well.

The wells:

• #1, killed: 16959, 971, QEP, Jones 16-14H, Blue Buttes, t6/08; cum 102K 5/12;
• #2, kept alive: 16960, 768, QEP, Jones 4-23H, Blue Buttes, t4/08; cum 156K 12/16;
• #3, in the graphic but not discussed in this post: 17266, 912, QEP, Jones 4-24H, Spotted horn, t1/09; cum 186K 12/16;

The graphic: