February, 2017, NDIC Director's Cut Posted

Personal comments (not the Director's comments): The decrease in production in North Dakota in December, 2016, was probably due to weather conditions as much as anything else. That will continue through January, 2017, according to the NDIC. In December, 2016, fracking was not possible on 15 days due to high wind, and 10 days due to extreme cold (most likely many of those days "overlapped").

Although the number of DUCs decreased a bit month-over-month in December, 2016, the number of inactive wells increased by 54, now up to 1,573. 

A newly fracked well might produce 20,000 - 40,000 bbls for the first full month. Inactive wells, more than a year old, are probably producing in the range of 1,000 to 3,000 bbls/ month.

Back of the envelope:

• 20 new wells unfracked, due to weather, other reasons: 400,000 bbls/month (13,000 bopd)
• 54 additional wells go inactive: 108,000 bbls/month (3,500 bopd) 

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The Director's Cut

February, 2017 

Link here.

DUCs: 807, down 32 from previous report.

Results of the poll in which readers were asked whether they thought DUCs would increase/decrease in number month-over-month:

• more DUCs: 55%
• fewer DUCs: 45%

Total daily production decreased since previous report:

• December, 2016: 942,455 bopd
• November, 2016: 1,034,484 bopd
• Delta: 92,029 bopd
• Delta: - 8.8% 

Producing wells:

• December, 2016: 13,337 (preliminary, all-time high was the previous month, November, 2016, at 13,520)
• November, 2016: 13,520

Permitting: 

• December, 2016: 81 drilling
• November, 2016: 76 drilling

ND sweet crude price:

• Today: $42.50
• January, 2017: $40.75
• December, 2016: $39.93
• November, 2016: $34.58

Rig count:

• January, 2017: 38
• December, 2016: 40
• November, 2016: 37

The number of well completions decreased slightly from 84 (final) in November, 2016, to 81 (preliminary) in December, 2016.

Weather:

• Fifteen (15) days with winds too strong for completion work (greater than 35 mph)
• Nine (9) days with temperatures below -10 degrees F. 
• That was in December; more of the same is predicted for January, 2017. 

Capital movement to the Permian, along with low oil prices, lifting of sanctions on Iran, and a weak global economy depressed the rig count, from the Director's Cut.

Flaring: statewide - 14%; FBIR - 16%

Natural gas capture rate: statewide - 86%; FBIR - 84%

• current mandate: 85% - November 1, 2016 - October 31, 2018
• future mandate: 88% - November, 2018 - October 31, 2020
• beginning November 1, 2020: 91%