A Conundrum In The Bakken -- A Jump In Production In An Abraxas Lillibridge Well In The Pershing Oil Field -- February 24, 2017

First the graphic:

Hopefully, I didn't make any major mistakes on this post. If I did, I will delete the whole post.

First, to get this out of the way, this is the same (almost the same) graphic used in an earlier post to show where Abraxas proposes to place up to sixteen more horizontal wells (March, 2017, NDIC hearing dockets).

Okay, now we move on. In the graphic above, note the Lillibridge wells, inside the oval, lower left. It was just the other day we posted that production data for these wells:

Abraxas Wells:

• 23622 Lillibridge 20-17-1H; t7/13; cum 359,886 bo; 642,473 MCF; most recent month (24 days), 12/16: 3,650 bo; 7,607 MCF gas
• 23623 Lillibridge 20-17-2H: t7/13; cum 199,648 bo; 339,576 MCF;  most recent month (31 days): 12/16: 2,120 bo; 3,705 MCF gas
• 23624 Lillibridge 20-17-3H t7/13; cum 248,883 bo; 422,610 MCF; most recent month (31 days): 12/16: 2,263 bo; 3,221 MCF gas
• 23625 Lillibridge 20-17-4H t8/13; cum 135,732 bo; 261,736 MCF; most recent month (31 days): 12/16: 1,605 bo; 3,271 MCF gas
• 25606 Lillibridge 20-17-5H t11/13; cum 248,037 bo; 432,294 MCF; most recent month (31 days): 12/16: 2,802 bo; 5,646 MCF gas
• 25607 Lillibridge 20-17-6H t11/13; cum 201,709 bo; 317,279 MCF; most recent month (31 days): 12/16: 2,354 bo; 6,581 MCF gas
• 25608 Lillibridge 20-17-7H t11/13; cum 216,682 bo; 340,484 MCF; most recent month (31 days): 12/16: 2,231 bo; 3,916 MCF gas
• 25609 Lillibridge 20-17-8H t12/13; cum 211,188 bo; 292,739 MCF; most recent month (17 days): 12/16: 4,240 bo; 5,512 MCF gas

A look at the production profiles of those eight Lillibridge wells did not reveal anything particularly remarkable except for #23622:

• 23622 Lillibridge 20-17-1H; t7/13; cum 359,886 bo; 642,473 MCF; most recent month (24 days), 12/16: 3,650 bo; 7,607 MCF gas; API: 33-053-04336; this well was fracked once; note the jump in production two years after the initial frack. All eight Lillibridge wells were drilled/completed about the same time. This well was taken off-line for less than a month prior to this jump in production. The jump in production is not subtle.

From FracFocus:

The production profile for #23622:
Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2017	31	4564	4579	1247	14651	14582	8
BAKKEN	12-2016	24	3650	3479	1166	7607	7560	0
BAKKEN	11-2016	25	3297	3478	1014	9248	9199	0
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	4349	4229	1345	11342	11281	0
BAKKEN	9-2016	30	4367	4517	1266	10198	10139	0
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	4738	4743	1400	10122	10061	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	31	5083	4973	1461	9867	9806	0
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	4912	5012	1426	8971	8912	0
BAKKEN	5-2016	24	5869	5901	2203	10751	10350	356
BAKKEN	4-2016	30	10868	11053	3811	20199	18349	1791
BAKKEN	3-2016	31	12316	12306	4484	22604	22358	185
BAKKEN	2-2016	29	12507	12507	4656	21969	20639	1273
BAKKEN	1-2016	31	14872	14812	5792	25049	20385	4603
BAKKEN	12-2015	31	18291	18361	9815	28962	9993	18908
Production Jump	11-2015	28	18385	18595	11292	27649	18272	9322
BAKKEN	10-2015	15	7482	6988	6221	11936	6333	5574
BAKKEN	9-2015	19	2315	2455	328	3062	2532	493
BAKKEN	8-2015	27	3095	3000	523	3666	1357	2256
BAKKEN	7-2015	26	3281	3226	394	3880	2601	1188
BAKKEN	6-2015	23	2571	2832	341	2752	1061	1646
BAKKEN	5-2015	31	3824	3638	527	5334	4869	404
BAKKEN	4-2015	18	2756	2821	610	6984	6707	242
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	7776	7701	1663	12892	3838	8993
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	8396	8441	1575	12937	9545	3337
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	4555	4580	577	6535	4266	2208
BAKKEN	12-2014	31	4598	4583	584	6711	4857	1793
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	4345	4330	545	6251	4441	1751
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	4373	4303	422	6585	4306	2218
BAKKEN	9-2014	30	4128	4504	310	6323	4794	1470
BAKKEN	8-2014	31	4302	4212	296	6423	4938	1424
BAKKEN	7-2014	31	4353	4097	346	6671	3750	2861
BAKKEN	6-2014	24	3167	3272	211	4978	2642	2289
BAKKEN	5-2014	31	7095	6995	1839	28751	2484	26206
BAKKEN	4-2014	30	9773	9898	1440	30924	18657	12208
BAKKEN	3-2014	26	8090	7882	105	10963	8394	2518
BAKKEN	2-2014	28	9099	9157	1216	22757	19917	2785
BAKKEN	1-2014	29	11891	11946	169	22662	22605	0
BAKKEN	12-2013	31	13782	13816	132	23735	23674	0
BAKKEN	11-2013	26	15980	15853	979	30725	30674	0
BAKKEN	10-2013	31	22760	23304	4321	39682	39621	0
BAKKEN	9-2013	24	17024	16488	4226	24351	24304	0
BAKKEN	8-2013	31	30308	30874	5731	47438	47377	0
Initial Frack	7-2013	17	15263	14343	6714	22027	21994	0

********************************

In the graphic below, there is a horizontal well running from the south to the north long the eastern section line -- it is "buried"under the dark red line that demarcates the eastern section line of that drilling unit; the horizontal, #29805, parallels the Lillibridge wells for their entire length.

That well is #29805:

• 29805, 802, BR, Morgan 14-21TFH ULW, Pershing, 36 stages, 3.9 million lbs, t11/15; cum 54K 12/16; API: 33-053-06409; last well was fracked once:

The monthly production profile for #29805:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2016	31	3933	3907	1467	10300	10208	0
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	4285	4282	2058	13204	13118	0
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	4615	4612	2214	13320	13231	0
BAKKEN	9-2016	30	4911	4913	2140	13586	13500	0
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	5779	5780	2297	13907	13819	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	31	7048	7074	3187	12278	12189	0
BAKKEN	6-2016	29	8334	8275	2814	17327	17313	0
BAKKEN	5-2016	7	2942	2920	1305	5800	5797	0
BAKKEN	4-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2016	0	0	36	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2016	16	5954	6182	2829	13379	13200	172
BAKKEN	12-2015	1	2874	2611	600	1224	1098	125
BAKKEN	11-2015	19	3514	3514	6802	5223	0	5203

Lots of things to think about.

Again, hopefully, I didn't make a big mistake, like looking at the wrong drilling unit or something just as bad, but if this is all accurate, lots of things to think about. But too late for me to think about anything. See you later this weekend.