Unfettered, The WIlliston Basin Could Produce 2 Million BOPD With Less Than 50 Rigs -- January 22, 2017

Active rigs:

	1/22/2017	01/22/2016	01/22/2015	01/22/2014	01/22/2013
Active Rigs	38	47	159	187	188

January, 2010

• 81 rigs
• 235,925 bopd

January, 2011

• 163 rigs
• 342,088 bopd

January, 2012

• 200 rigs
• 546,047 bopd 

January 22, 2013

• 188 rigs
• 738,022 bopd

January 22, 2014

• 187 rigs
• 933,128 bopd

January 22, 2015

• 159 rigs
• 1,190,490 bopd

January 22, 2016

• 47 rigs
• 1,122,100 bopd

January 22, 2017 

• 38 rigs
• 1,100,000 bopd (estimate)

Comments: early on in the Bakken, I remember all that talk about the Red Queen effect and the decline rate of the Bakken. Maybe, maybe not. But with 47 rigs, North Dakota is producing the same amount of crude oil on a daily basis that it did with 200 rigs. In addition, take into consideration that crude oil production is front-loaded on Bakken wells; there are approximately 900 DUCs (wells that have been drilled to depth, not fracked, and could be brought on line in one to two weeks); and, another 1,200 inactive wells (completed wells that have been shut-in due to low commodity prices and other reasons). Unfettered, the Williston Basin could produce 2 million bopd with less than 50 rigs.

There are rumors that we could see 100 active rigs in North Dakota by summer, 2017, but that begs the question: why?

Saudi Arabia is crowing that OPEC and Russia have taken about 1.5 million bbls of oil off the global market per day. The Bakken alone could replace that if necessary. And then we have three more plays: the Permian, the Eagle Ford, and the Trump.