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Thursday, January 26, 2017

Twitter Scan Suggests Conversation Has Changed -- Bullish On Oil-- January 26, 2017

Jobs: first time unemployment claims surge 22,000 to 259,000. I guess now that the election is over, the Department of Labor felt safe to report "real" numbers. Forecast: 244 to 250. Actual surges well past the high end of forecast. Not only that, but the prior week number was revised upward to 237,000. Four-week average down slightly to 245,500. 

All three indices hit record highs: Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ. 

RIN Tin Tin: I really don't care about the issue with regard to Carl Icahn (conflict-of-interest issues generally don't bother me) in this story. I'm linking it to remind me about RINs which, once-upon-a-time, confused me.

US to begin selling oil from SPR today: comments here

Making America greater than ever before: "Fiat Chrysler profit means big checks for UAW workers" -- US News. Average worker bonus: $5,000. Ford will average $9,000 profit sharing for each of 56,000 employees.

BHI: reports much wider loss than forecast: 30-cent loss after adjustments vs 11-cent forecast. Revenue came in at $2.41 billion; forecast, $2.37 billion. BHI expects North American shale to lead industry recovery, from Reuters.

Meme: "a foreign country will always test a new president." On MSNBC "Morning Joe" it was noted that President Trump has not yet been tested by any foreign government. Note: the president has been in office for less than one week.

Huge whoop! Comcast (CMCSA) up over 2% in pre-market trading:
  • best results in nine (9) years
  • announces buyback
  • increases dividend; up 15% to $1.26/share
  • announces 2 -1 stock split
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Presidential tweet: 35 minutes ago ( ~ 5:10 a.m. Central Time) --
Ungrateful TRAITOR Chelsea Manning, who should never have been released from prison, is now calling President Obama a weak leader. Terrible!
The tweet, at face value, may or may not mean anything more than what it says but last night during the ABC interview, Trump said he was "touched" by the very thoughtful, long private letter that President Obama left the new president.

Human nature, being what it is, suggests to me that Trump had that letter in mind when hearing that an individual pardoned / sentence commuted by Obama is now dissing his/her benefactor.

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Snowflakes and cupcakes: some folks just can't get over the fact Donald John Trump is president. Even after the record-setting Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ, Andrew Ross Sorkin says he is not impressed. And this guy is still on a business show? When pressed, he was unable to say what would excite him. 

On cue: last night before going to bed, I asked in passing, somewhat tongue-in-cheek, that President Trump must be getting eager to be out with the public again, to fly again, to take that first Marine One flight, that first AF One flight. Today, it was announced that President Trump is taking his first flight o AF One. I think "they" said it was to Pennsylvania. 

A quick run-through of Twitter this morning suggests the conversation has turned: bullish on oil in the out years. For example, this graph via Twitter:


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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:


1/26/201701/26/201601/26/201501/26/201401/26/2013
Active Rigs3848156187190

RBN Energy: monitoring compliance with the OPEC/NOPEC deal to cut production.
Hiding non-compliance will be considerably more difficult this go-round than in the past, but it doesn’t mean that no one will try. Over the first three weeks of January, the agreement seems to be holding. There is no way for outsiders to precisely monitor how much oil is being produced daily in each country, of course, but we do know (from ClipperData’s tracking) that shipments from six leading OPEC producers in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Kuwait and Qatar) have dropped sharply––from ~19.4 MMb/d in December 2016 to ~18.5 MMb/d so far in January 2017. 
Exports from Saudi Arabia (the largest OPEC producer by far) were down more than 9% month-over-month, from ~7.4 MMb/d to ~6.7 MMb/d, accounting for the most of the Middle East’s cuts.
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The Market

Even after an incredible day yesterday, futures suggest the market will continue this impressive run.  WTI sits at $52.86.

Huge whoop! XLNX reported today:
  • better-than-expected
  • top and bottom line also witnessed impressive year-over-year improvement
  • came in at 52 cents/share; estimate of 49 cents
  • 6.1% increase y/y
  • revenues up 3.4%
  • fifth consecutive quarter of revenue growth 
Huge whoop! Comcast (CMCSA) up over 2% in pre-market trading:
  • announces buyback
  • increases dividend
  • announces 2 -1 stock split

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