Red Queen ... -- January 25, 2017

... hasn't fallen off her treadmill yet ...

Crude oil: reserves build by 3 million bbls of oil. WTI down below $53.

• actual inventories: up 2.840 million bbls
• forecast: 2.815 million bbls
• previous: 2.347 million bbls
• So, what does this really mean? 
• crude oil inventories in the US are in the area of 485 million bbls (does not include SPR)
• SPR: runs in the area of 700 million bbls
• total inventories (with SPR): runs in the area of 1,200 million bbls
• forecast 2.815 million
• actual: 2.840 million
• delta: 0.025 million
• 0.025 million delta / 1,200 million = a lot of zeros to the right of the decimal point

By the way, there's probably way more than 0.025 million bbls of crude sitting in the DAPL pipeline between Tioga and Cannonball. Does 0.025 million bbls convert to 25,000 bbls? If so, it is amazing how close the forecast is to the actual. Maybe I'm missing something. Wouldn't be the first time:

• my math was wrong;
• I misunderstand the importance of this

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Rate Of Demand To Grow Faster Than Rate Of Production (Crude Oil) Through 2018
From the EIA today:

EIA estimates that crude oil and other liquids inventories grew by 2.0 million barrels per day (b/d) in the fourth quarter of 2016, driven by an increase in production and a significant, but seasonal, drop in consumption.

Global production and consumption are both projected to increase through 2018, but consumption is expected to increase at a faster rate than production. As a result, global balances are expected to tighten…

Global production is expected to have increased by 1.6 million b/d in the fourth quarter of 2016, with OPEC accounting for 0.9 million b/d, or 55%, of this increase.

EIA estimates that total global production averaged 96.4 million b/d in 2016.

Global production is expected to increase to 97.5 million b/d in 2017 to 98.9 million b/d in 2018.”---EIA