Random Look At Number Of Oil And Gas Permits In North Dakota During The Bakken Boom -- January 7, 2017

For another look at this, see the "history of the 2014 - 2016 oil price slump."

In 2016, the NDIC issued 818 oil and gas permits (my data may not match perfectly with the data of the NDIC, but it will be close, and some of the older data may be off a bit).

How does that compare with the number of permits issued in 2015?  2,056 permits were issued in 2015?

However, there's another interesting data point: the slump in the number of permits issued by the NDIC began in the second half (or maybe earlier) of 2015.

During the heady days of the boom, I would project/predict the number of permits likely to be issued for the entire year based on the number of permits issued at various times during the year.

For example, it's hard to believe but I was projecting the number of permits issued in any year by looking at the number of permits issued in the month of January of the given year. I did that for years 2012 - 2015, inclusive. I did not do that for 2016, knowing that it would only depress me. LOL.

Looking back, based on January of the given year, these were the projections, and then below that, the actual number of permits:

Projections for number of permits at the end of the calendar year based on permits of that same calendar year as of January 29th:

• 2015: 3,033
• 2014: 3,184
• 2013: 2,744
• 2012: 2,102

The actual number of permits issued for the full calendar year:

• 2015: 2,055
• 2014: 3,012
• 2013: 2,671
• 2012: 2,522

In other words:

• based on permits issued in January, 2012, I predicted 2,102 permits vs actual number of 2,522 (significant increase)
• based on permits issued in January, 2013, I predicted 2,744 permits, quite close to the actual 2,671 issued
• based on permits issued in January, 2014, I predicted 3,184 permits, very, very close to the actual 3,012 permits issued

But then note this:

• based on permits issued in January, 2015, I predicted 3,033 permits. In fact, only 2,055 permits were issued; a huge slump in 2015 due the crushing fall in the price of oil

By the way, in 2008, the NDIC issued 952 permits. The Bakken boom began in 2007 and reached its stride in 2010.

• 2011: 1,915 permits
• 2010: 1,682 permits
• 2009: 624 permits 
• 2008: 952 permits