Kashagan Update -- January 23, 2017

Don't even ask, but somehow today I got onto the subject of Kashagan again (I need to get a life, 😃).

I follow the Kashagan at this link.

I am re-posting the update here; it's pretty interesting:

Over the years, much has changed with regard to the Kashagan (see original post at the link; compare those notes with the Diplomat link, October 17, 2106. Data points:

• consortium: Eni, Shell, XOM, Total, CNPC (China), Inpex, and Kazakhstan-state oil company
• at the end of the 20th century, the Kashagan was the largest oil discovery in a generation
• production had begun in late 2013 but immediately suspended due to faulty pipes
• back on-line late 2016
• now very cautious optimism
• early production (late 2016 when brought back on-line): 90,000 bopd (compare with 1 million bopd from North Dakota, mostly the Bakken)
• costs continue to be a headache
• behind schedule; significantly over-budget
• since contract signed in 2000, costs have surpassed $53 billion
• below $100/bbl, the companies running the North Caspian Operating Consortium will incur losses -- does anyone think we will see $100 oil before 2020, if ever (in today's dollars)?
• it is estimated that production costs at Kashagan exceed $50/bbl; in other words, probably selling oil at a loss right now
• despite that, the government directed that Kashagan go back on-line
• first phase: in a couple of years, at its peak, Kashagan projected to yield 370,000 bopd; pretty puny in the big scheme of things (at $60 oil, if the full $60 was profit [and, of course it isn't] it would take almost seven years of producing at its peak of 370,000 bopd to pay off the $53 billion; and there are obviously continuing production costs; interest payments; etc)
• second phase: no timeline yet -- hope to get to 1 million bopd
• government is anxious about the project getting through its first winter (2016 - 2017); workers unhappy with low pay; workers pay increased to keep them from striking 

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This Is Truly Bizarre

Eight years of Barack Obama have led us to this (Barack has been out of office for about four days):
https://news.grabien.com/story-dnc-chair-candidates-bash-white-people-racially-charged-foru
So, with that, three strikes against me:

• white
• old
• male

I'm going to shut up and go to bed.