Is Crude Oil Supply/Demand Rebalancing On Track, Or Have Cuts Swung Too Far?

I think this is an interesting "intellectual" discussion/subject for me, and an interesting "investing" discussion for others.

It has to do with re-balancing crude oil supply and demand. See these two posts:

• background
• definitions

Some of us argue that recent cuts by OPEC and Russia will fall short of re-balancing crude oil supply/demand in the near term (2020, possibly even before 2024). If accurate, we will see no disorderly rise in the price of oil in the near term.

Others argue that the OPEC and Russian cuts may have swung the pendulum too far and that we will see evidence of that well before 2020, perhaps as early as late 2018.

I'm not sure if I articulate that well enough to be understood, but let's see where this goes.

A poll:

OPEC, Russia cuts in oil production will result in a disorderly rise in the price of oil as early as late 2018.

• agree
• disagree

As I refine this discussion, additional polls may be indicated.

This is from the EIA today, via Twitter, which I just happened to see at 10:44 p.m. Central Time, January 25, 2017 (this is Brent, which is running about $3 higher than WTI):