DUCs To The Rescue -- October 13, 2016

Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co (TPH), oil analysts, in recent note to investors:

• US crude oil production needs to grow a bit if market is to re-balance by the end of the year
• increased number of rigs may not be enough
• estimated exit right on target but 1Q17 could miss
• drillers hesitant to add more rigs (except in Permian and STACK)
• the solution? DUCs
• analysts "feel comfortable the Bakken may catch up ... but less confident that Eagle Ford will catch up"

DUCs abound across the US

• highest totals in the Eagle Ford (1,250) and the Permian (1,350)

TPH:

In the next few years, operators will likely target a backlog of two to three wells per rig. A total inventory of about 2,000 would be a normal level, TPH said, which could be the case by 2018. That would make roughly 3,000 DUCs available toward production across the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara.

Wells on backlog cost about two-thirds the price of new wells to bring to production; the cost to reach equilibrium would be close to $12 billion, TPH said.

Note that TPH is using the same accounting methods used by CLR: Wells on backlog cost about two-thirds the price of new wells to bring to production.

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Warmists Upset Hurricane Matthew Not Worse

Link here.

• in US: 30 deaths
• total deaths: more than a thousand
• property loss in US: $5 billion

Not enough to satisfy warmists; they need more to keep scam going.

By the way, this all explains all the hype about Hurricane Matthews (and other hurricanes). I remarked to my wife, that for an "epic" hurricane, Matthews certainly did not live up to the hype. And once it passed Florida, I didn't hear much about it.

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It Will Still Feel Like An Eternity 

By the way, I did not see it in the news. President Obama now has less than 100 days left in office.

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A Little Music, Please

Updates

October 22, 2016; in the original post, I opined how Prince did himself and the world a real disservice (see below). As a further example, on Friday, yesterday, Terry Gross interviewed Leonard Cohen on "Fresh Air." Good for him. 

Original Post

 

Nobel Prize in literature: wiki. When you look at the list, Dylan will truly stand out among: TS Eliot, William Faulkner, Bertrand Russell, Sir Winston Churchill, Ernest Hemingway, Boris Pasternak, John Steinbeck, Jean-Paul Sartre, Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, Saul Bellow, Joseph Brodsky, Seamus Heaney, Toni Morrison, Orhan Pamuk, and to think of all those who did not win.

From The WSJ: is Bob Dylan literature? Comparing Dylan to Homer is a bit of a stretch, I would say. Joyce Carol Oates is way off the mark when she says the "surviving Beatles" might be more deserving. Not even close. The Beatles had some great poetry, but most of what they wrote were lyrics. Just the opposite for Dylan: most of what he wrote was poetry; he wrote few lyrics. The comments following the article suggest most folks ... well, they don't think like me. LOL.

Speaking of Nobel Prizes, here's an interesting link over at AEI.

The Nobel Prize Ceremony: boring. A lot of speeches. They need to spice it up a bit. All winners are expected to show up in person and make a little speech. My hunch: the judges got tired of all the speeches and wanted a little music. Bob Dylan. Inspired choice, by the way.

Without question: Prince did himself a huge disservice: secrecy; few concerts; no interviews; no nothing. Not even a will. 

75 years old. Probably relevant:

Knockin' on Heaven's Door, Bob Dylan

Top 20 Fields In The Williston Basin -- August, 2016 Data -- October 13, 2016

Field	July 2016 Production	July Wells	July Oil/Well/Month	Percent Change June-to-July	August 2016 Production	August Wells	AugustOil/Well/Month	Percent Change July -to-August
Sanish	1,334,131	601	2,220		1,357,449	601	2,259	1.75%
Parshall	1,219,070	438	2,783		1,166,153	438	2,662	-4.34%
Grail	1,031,304	178	5,794	6.08%	907,322	178	5,097	-12.02%
Corral Creek	856,387	148	5,786	4.67%	828,103	148	5,595	-3.30%
Antelope-Sanish	848,633	167	5,082	-0.89%	770,322	167	4,613	-9.23%
Alger	732,454	312	2,348		648,600	312	2,079	-11.45%
Blue Buttes	681,982	143	4,769	6.74%	636,129	143	4,448	-6.72%
Spotted Horn	680,174	86	7,909	7.75%	617,749	88	7,020	-11.24%
Banks	666,709	182	3,663		610,666	186	3,283	-10.38%
Siverston	625,387	223	2,804		568,046	223	2,547	-9.17%
Big Bend	526,998	116	4,543	4.47%	518,988	116	4,474	-1.52%
Heart Butte	528,206	179	2,951		510,456	179	2,852	-3.36%
Reunion Bay	551,281	149	3,700		509,052	151	3,371	-8.88%
Camp	589,582	132	4,467	16.57%	490,751	137	3,582	-19.80%
Van Hook	541,306	181	2,991		487,636	185	2,636	-11.86%
Truax	497,181	171	2,907		451,462	171	2,640	-9.20%
McGregory Buttes	453,413	95	4,773	15.47%	448,183	95	4,718	-1.15%
Alkali Creek	483,117	141	3,426		417,891	143	2,922	-14.71%
Robinson Lake	410,682	172	2,388		394,638	172	2,294	-3.91%
East Fork	394,824	104	3,796		381,196	104	3,665	-3.45%

Top twenty oil fields based on average amount of oil / well / for the month of August -- second to last column:

Field	July 2016 Production	July Wells	July Oil/Well/Month	Percent Change June-to-July	August 2016 Production	August Wells	AugustOil/Well/Month	Percent Change July -to-August
Spotted Horn	680,174	86	7,909	7.75%	617,749	88	7,020	-11.24%
Long Creek	197,362	27	7,310	-13.45%	176,932	27	6,553	-10.35%
Corral Creek	856,387	148	5,786	4.67%	828,103	148	5,595	-3.30%
Grail	1,031,304	178	5,794	6.08%	907,322	178	5,097	-12.02%
Lost Bridge	321,767	57	5,645	19.28%	289,573	57	5,080	-10.01%
Pershing	209,341	39	5,368	3.48%	187,481	39	4,807	-10.44%
Bear Den	202,143	44	4,594	-8.07%	207,848	44	4,724	2.82%
McGregory Buttes	453,413	95	4,773	15.47%	448,183	95	4,718	-1.15%
Antelope-Sanish	848,633	167	5,082	-0.89%	770,322	167	4,613	-9.23%
Big Bend	526,998	116	4,543	4.47%	518,988	116	4,474	-1.52%
Blue Buttes	681,982	143	4,769	6.74%	636,129	143	4,448	-6.72%
Camel Butte	142,098	34	4,179	7.02%	147,928	34	4,351	4.10%
Bear Creek	97,805	27	3,622		115,625	27	4,282	18.22%
Eagle Nest	339,938	78	4,358	17.62%	315,273	79	3,991	-8.43%
Johnson Corner	121,544	31	3,921	-1.45%	120,996	31	3,903	-0.45%
North Fork	93,620	43	2,177		217,776	56	3,889	78.62%
Crazy Man Creek	191,066	44	4,342	-9.69%	162,043	44	3,683	-15.19%
Williston	85,265	21	4,060	15.93%	77,247	21	3,678	-9.40%
East Fork	394,824	104	3,796		381,196	104	3,665	-3.45%
Moccasin Creek	234,313	59	3,971	7.57%	215,360	59	3,650	-8.09%

In the table above (the second table), note that, with exception of two fields, the number of wells stayed the same. The exceptions were North Fork and Eagle Nest. The increased number of wells in Eagle Nest was trivial, but the increased number of wells in North Fork was remarkable, increasing from 43 in July, 2016, to 56 in August, 2016.

Note the increase in production in North Fork, up almost 80%, from 93,620 bbls in the month of July to almost 220,000 bbls in the month of August.