Pages

Thursday, October 13, 2016

DUCs To The Rescue -- October 13, 2016

Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co (TPH), oil analysts, in recent note to investors:
  • US crude oil production needs to grow a bit if market is to re-balance by the end of the year
  • increased number of rigs may not be enough
  • estimated exit right on target but 1Q17 could miss
  • drillers hesitant to add more rigs (except in Permian and STACK)
  • the solution? DUCs
  • analysts "feel comfortable the Bakken may catch up ... but less confident that Eagle Ford will catch up"
DUCs abound across the US
  • highest totals in the Eagle Ford (1,250) and the Permian (1,350)
TPH:
In the next few years, operators will likely target a backlog of two to three wells per rig. A total inventory of about 2,000 would be a normal level, TPH said, which could be the case by 2018. That would make roughly 3,000 DUCs available toward production across the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara.
Wells on backlog cost about two-thirds the price of new wells to bring to production; the cost to reach equilibrium would be close to $12 billion, TPH said.
Note that TPH is using the same accounting methods used by CLR: Wells on backlog cost about two-thirds the price of new wells to bring to production.

***************************
Warmists Upset Hurricane Matthew Not Worse

Link here.
  • in US: 30 deaths
  • total deaths: more than a thousand
  • property loss in US: $5 billion
Not enough to satisfy warmists; they need more to keep scam going.

By the way, this all explains all the hype about Hurricane Matthews (and other hurricanes). I remarked to my wife, that for an "epic" hurricane, Matthews certainly did not live up to the hype. And once it passed Florida, I didn't hear much about it.

*****************************
It Will Still Feel Like An Eternity 
By the way, I did not see it in the news. President Obama now has less than 100 days left in office.

 ***************************
A Little Music, Please
Updates

October 22, 2016; in the original post, I opined how Prince did himself and the world a real disservice (see below). As a further example, on Friday, yesterday, Terry Gross interviewed Leonard Cohen on "Fresh Air." Good for him. 

Original Post
 
Nobel Prize in literature: wiki. When you look at the list, Dylan will truly stand out among: TS Eliot, William Faulkner, Bertrand Russell, Sir Winston Churchill, Ernest Hemingway, Boris Pasternak, John Steinbeck, Jean-Paul Sartre, Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, Saul Bellow, Joseph Brodsky, Seamus Heaney, Toni Morrison, Orhan Pamuk, and to think of all those who did not win.

From The WSJ: is Bob Dylan literature? Comparing Dylan to Homer is a bit of a stretch, I would say. Joyce Carol Oates is way off the mark when she says the "surviving Beatles" might be more deserving. Not even close. The Beatles had some great poetry, but most of what they wrote were lyrics. Just the opposite for Dylan: most of what he wrote was poetry; he wrote few lyrics. The comments following the article suggest most folks ... well, they don't think like me. LOL.

Speaking of Nobel Prizes, here's an interesting link over at AEI.

The Nobel Prize Ceremony: boring. A lot of speeches. They need to spice it up a bit. All winners are expected to show up in person and make a little speech. My hunch: the judges got tired of all the speeches and wanted a little music. Bob Dylan. Inspired choice, by the way.

Without question: Prince did himself a huge disservice: secrecy; few concerts; no interviews; no nothing. Not even a will. 

75 years old. Probably relevant:

Knockin' on Heaven's Door, Bob Dylan

Top 20 Fields In The Williston Basin -- August, 2016 Data -- October 13, 2016

Field
July 2016 Production
July Wells
July Oil/Well/Month
Percent Change June-to-July
August 2016 Production
August Wells
AugustOil/Well/Month
Percent Change July -to-August
Sanish
1,334,131
601
2,220

1,357,449
601
2,259
1.75%
Parshall
1,219,070
438
2,783

1,166,153
438
2,662
-4.34%
Grail
1,031,304
178
5,794
6.08%
907,322
178
5,097
-12.02%
Corral Creek
856,387
148
5,786
4.67%
828,103
148
5,595
-3.30%
Antelope-Sanish
848,633
167
5,082
-0.89%
770,322
167
4,613
-9.23%
Alger 
732,454
312
2,348

648,600
312
2,079
-11.45%
Blue Buttes
681,982
143
4,769
6.74%
636,129
143
4,448
-6.72%
Spotted Horn
680,174
86
7,909
7.75%
617,749
88
7,020
-11.24%
Banks
666,709
182
3,663

610,666
186
3,283
-10.38%
Siverston
625,387
223
2,804

568,046
223
2,547
-9.17%
Big Bend
526,998
116
4,543
4.47%
518,988
116
4,474
-1.52%
Heart Butte
528,206
179
2,951

510,456
179
2,852
-3.36%
Reunion Bay 
551,281
149
3,700

509,052
151
3,371
-8.88%
Camp
589,582
132
4,467
16.57%
490,751
137
3,582
-19.80%
Van Hook
541,306
181
2,991

487,636
185
2,636
-11.86%
Truax
497,181
171
2,907

451,462
171
2,640
-9.20%
McGregory Buttes
453,413
95
4,773
15.47%
448,183
95
4,718
-1.15%
Alkali Creek
483,117
141
3,426

417,891
143
2,922
-14.71%
Robinson Lake
410,682
172
2,388

394,638
172
2,294
-3.91%
East Fork
394,824
104
3,796

381,196
104
3,665
-3.45%

Top twenty oil fields based on average amount of oil / well / for the month of August -- second to last column:

Field
July 2016 Production
July Wells
July Oil/Well/Month
Percent Change June-to-July
August 2016 Production
August Wells
AugustOil/Well/Month
Percent Change July -to-August
Spotted Horn
680,174
86
7,909
7.75%
617,749
88
7,020
-11.24%
Long Creek
197,362
27
7,310
-13.45%
176,932
27
6,553
-10.35%
Corral Creek
856,387
148
5,786
4.67%
828,103
148
5,595
-3.30%
Grail
1,031,304
178
5,794
6.08%
907,322
178
5,097
-12.02%
Lost Bridge
321,767
57
5,645
19.28%
289,573
57
5,080
-10.01%
Pershing
209,341
39
5,368
3.48%
187,481
39
4,807
-10.44%
Bear Den
202,143
44
4,594
-8.07%
207,848
44
4,724
2.82%
McGregory Buttes
453,413
95
4,773
15.47%
448,183
95
4,718
-1.15%
Antelope-Sanish
848,633
167
5,082
-0.89%
770,322
167
4,613
-9.23%
Big Bend
526,998
116
4,543
4.47%
518,988
116
4,474
-1.52%
Blue Buttes
681,982
143
4,769
6.74%
636,129
143
4,448
-6.72%
Camel Butte
142,098
34
4,179
7.02%
147,928
34
4,351
4.10%
Bear Creek
97,805
27
3,622

115,625
27
4,282
18.22%
Eagle Nest
339,938
78
4,358
17.62%
315,273
79
3,991
-8.43%
Johnson Corner
121,544
31
3,921
-1.45%
120,996
31
3,903
-0.45%
North Fork
93,620
43
2,177

217,776
56
3,889
78.62%
Crazy Man Creek
191,066
44
4,342
-9.69%
162,043
44
3,683
-15.19%
Williston
85,265
21
4,060
15.93%
77,247
21
3,678
-9.40%
East Fork
394,824
104
3,796

381,196
104
3,665
-3.45%
Moccasin Creek
234,313
59
3,971
7.57%
215,360
59
3,650
-8.09%


In the table above (the second table), note that, with exception of two fields, the number of wells stayed the same. The exceptions were North Fork and Eagle Nest. The increased number of wells in Eagle Nest was trivial, but the increased number of wells in North Fork was remarkable, increasing from 43 in July, 2016, to 56 in August, 2016.

Note the increase in production in North Fork, up almost 80%, from 93,620 bbls in the month of July to almost 220,000 bbls in the month of August.