DUCs To The Rescue -- October 13, 2016

Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co (TPH), oil analysts, in recent note to investors:

• US crude oil production needs to grow a bit if market is to re-balance by the end of the year
• increased number of rigs may not be enough
• estimated exit right on target but 1Q17 could miss
• drillers hesitant to add more rigs (except in Permian and STACK)
• the solution? DUCs
• analysts "feel comfortable the Bakken may catch up ... but less confident that Eagle Ford will catch up"

DUCs abound across the US

• highest totals in the Eagle Ford (1,250) and the Permian (1,350)

TPH:

In the next few years, operators will likely target a backlog of two to three wells per rig. A total inventory of about 2,000 would be a normal level, TPH said, which could be the case by 2018. That would make roughly 3,000 DUCs available toward production across the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara.

Wells on backlog cost about two-thirds the price of new wells to bring to production; the cost to reach equilibrium would be close to $12 billion, TPH said.

Note that TPH is using the same accounting methods used by CLR: Wells on backlog cost about two-thirds the price of new wells to bring to production.

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Warmists Upset Hurricane Matthew Not Worse

Link here.

• in US: 30 deaths
• total deaths: more than a thousand
• property loss in US: $5 billion

Not enough to satisfy warmists; they need more to keep scam going.

By the way, this all explains all the hype about Hurricane Matthews (and other hurricanes). I remarked to my wife, that for an "epic" hurricane, Matthews certainly did not live up to the hype. And once it passed Florida, I didn't hear much about it.

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It Will Still Feel Like An Eternity 

By the way, I did not see it in the news. President Obama now has less than 100 days left in office.

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A Little Music, Please

Updates

October 22, 2016; in the original post, I opined how Prince did himself and the world a real disservice (see below). As a further example, on Friday, yesterday, Terry Gross interviewed Leonard Cohen on "Fresh Air." Good for him. 

Original Post

 

Nobel Prize in literature: wiki. When you look at the list, Dylan will truly stand out among: TS Eliot, William Faulkner, Bertrand Russell, Sir Winston Churchill, Ernest Hemingway, Boris Pasternak, John Steinbeck, Jean-Paul Sartre, Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, Saul Bellow, Joseph Brodsky, Seamus Heaney, Toni Morrison, Orhan Pamuk, and to think of all those who did not win.

From The WSJ: is Bob Dylan literature? Comparing Dylan to Homer is a bit of a stretch, I would say. Joyce Carol Oates is way off the mark when she says the "surviving Beatles" might be more deserving. Not even close. The Beatles had some great poetry, but most of what they wrote were lyrics. Just the opposite for Dylan: most of what he wrote was poetry; he wrote few lyrics. The comments following the article suggest most folks ... well, they don't think like me. LOL.

Speaking of Nobel Prizes, here's an interesting link over at AEI.

The Nobel Prize Ceremony: boring. A lot of speeches. They need to spice it up a bit. All winners are expected to show up in person and make a little speech. My hunch: the judges got tired of all the speeches and wanted a little music. Bob Dylan. Inspired choice, by the way.

Without question: Prince did himself a huge disservice: secrecy; few concerts; no interviews; no nothing. Not even a will. 

75 years old. Probably relevant:

Knockin' on Heaven's Door, Bob Dylan