For The Archives -- Fracking And Groundwater -- April 28, 2016

From Rigzone:

The impact of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing on groundwater quality in the Cline shale play is not believed to be permanent, new research from the University of Texas at Arlington (UTA) suggests.

The research is the first to analyze the groundwater quality in the Cline shale region of West Texas before, during and after the expansion of unconventional exploration and production.

Researchers found that water samples from private wells contained chlorinated solvents, alcohols and aromatic compounds exclusively after multiple unconventional oil wells had been activated within 3.1 miles of the sampling sites.

Large fluctuations in pH and total organic carbon levels also were detected in addition to a gradual accumulation of bromide.

These changes and levels are abnormal for typical groundwater quality, said Kevin Schug, the study’s lead author and UTA’s Shimadzu Distinguished Professor of Analytical Chemistry and director of UTA’s Collaborative Laboratories for Environmental Analysis and Remediation (CLEAR), in an April 26 press release.

However, the results also suggest that containment from unconventional drilling may be variable and sporadic, not systematic, and that some toxic compounds associated with areas of high unconventional drilling may degrade or become diluted within the aquifer over time.

The study also indicated that contamination pathways are complex; various toxic compounds were detected in groundwater seemingly at random times in areas of high drilling activity. Schug said that more research is needed to precisely quantify and understand contamination cycles as well as to understand aquifer resilience to pollutants.

I Beg Your Pardon (Rose Garden), Lynn Anderson  

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A Note to the Granddaughters

I generally take Sophia -- she will be two years old this June -- to the park every day for about an hour or so. I try to keep it varied and interesting. Today we took five dice. Sophia loves to play Yahtzee. She has no idea what she's doing but she loves to put the five dice in a cup and roll them, and then throw her arms up, and yell "Yahtzee" when she rolls a Yahtzee. She gets a Yahtee on every roll.

On the way home, Sophia was getting antsy, so I gave her the five dice to play with on her tray on her stroller. About half-way home I noticed that one die was missing.

I feigned my irritation, telling Sophia we were going to have to go back over the ground covered, and look for the missing die. She was very serious, and, she, too, leaned out over the stroller, to help look for the missing die.

We had backtracked about a block when I noted she was holding a die in her hand, and there were still the original four in her tray.

Putting "2 and 2" together, it was clear we were never missing the fifth die. Sophia had put it in her mouth and that's where I had not checked. I guess to keep from getting in trouble, when I feigned irritation, she kept her mouth shut and continued the charade of looking for the lost die, and then when the time was right, put the "lost" die in her hand so I could see it.

Never a dull moment. 

Lifeline For Oil Companies -- April 28, 2016

I do not recall when I first thought this, or when I first posted it. Most recently, I posted it April 12, 2016:

• $40 oil is a lifeline for US shale oil.
• $50 oil will allow most US shale oil companies to survive.
• $60 oil, they will thrive.

Over at Rigzone today, this is the headline of the lead article:  Rising Oil Prices Throw Lifeline to Shale Producers. The article is written by the most accessible global oil analyst currently on the scene: John Kemp, writing from London, for Retuers.

Brent prices for 2017 ended trading above $50 per barrel on Wednesday for the first time since mid-December following the largest and most sustained rally in prices since the oil slump started.

The average for the 12 futures contracts expiring in 2017, called the calendar strip, has risen by 34 percent from its recent low of $37.45 on Jan. 20 to $50.26 on April 27.

Spot prices, represented by the nearest futures contract, dominate the headlines and are of most interest to analysts and financial investors. Most hedge funds and other money managers concentrate on nearby futures contracts because they are the most liquid.

Calendar strips for future quarters and years are far less prominently reported in the media and analyst commentaries. But the majority of crude producers and consumers such as airlines rely on calendar strips to hedge future sales and purchases.

For producers struggling to meet debt payments and avoid breaching the terms of loan covenants, rising prices are a chance to lock in future revenue and reduce downside risks.

Oilfield Dad, Bryan Martin

EIA's Update On Iraq -- April 28, 2016

From the EIA:

The U.S. Energy Information Administration released its updated country analysis brief on Iraq’s energy sector.

There is some good background information here for future stories and could enough for a separate story now.

“Iraq is OPEC’s second-largest crude oil producer and holds the fifth-largest proved crude oil reserves in the world.

In 2015, Iraq’s production increased by almost 700,000 b/d compared with the production level in 2014, representing the largest year-over-year increase since Iraq’s production recovery in 2004, following the start of the Iraq war...Iraq continues to lower its ambitious oil production targets...After lowering the target to about 9.0 million b/d by 2020, Iraq may lower the target down to 6.0 million b/d if oil prices continue to be low. -- U.S. EIA

From the link:

Iraq was the second-leading contributor to the growth in global oil supply in 2015, behind only the United States. Crude oil production in Iraq, including fields in the Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq, averaged 4.0 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015, almost 700,000 b/d above the 2014 level.

Iraq is the second-largest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and accounted for about 75% of total OPEC production growth in 2015. Iraq's oil consumption decreased slightly in 2015, and as a result, all of the crude oil production increase was exported to international markets. 

What Has Been Will Be Again, What Has Been Done Will Be Done Again; There Is Nothing New Under The Sun -- Ecclesiastes 1:9 -- April 28, 2016; Pioneer In The Wolfcamp -- Cash Costs Down To $14/Bbl

Flashback, 1987.

This is a story for of the US oil bust back in 1987. It is remarkable how it sounds just like today. A huge "thank you" to the reader who sent me this link.

From The New York Times, March 1, 1987, almost 30 years ago:

This session in Mr. Rudman's den did not seem to be a run-of-the-mill opening for a discussion about the oil industry, but very little is run of the mill about Mr. Rudman, from his remarkable vigor to his contrarian instincts to his eye-catching attire. At 77, he is a legend in the oil industry, a maverick who has made his fortune by following his instincts. And now that exploration efforts have slowed to a virtual standstill in the depressed oil patch, the venerable oilman is once again moving against the crowd, spending millions of his own dollars to drill new wells.

Mr. Rudman, whose career dates to back the 1930's, is an independent operator in a field increasingly dominated by corporate behemoths, a health food devotee in a world more attuned to t-bones, an aficionado of plumed hats and red velvet tuxedos in an industry that prefers conservative suits or blue jeans. And as unremitting gloom shrouds his fellow oilmen, he also stands out as an optimist.

''I've been waiting 56 years for this,'' said Mr. Rudman. ''It's the greatest opportunity that has ever existed in my lifetime. The way I figure is that if the price of oil is 50 percent of what it was and your drilling cost is 50 percent of what it was, you're in the same situation only the deals are so much better now.'' During the boom years, he said, too many investors were crowding each other out of the best opportunities. ''Right now, I figure I'm going to go at it as hard as I can. I'm spending every dime of my income on drilling wells.''

Other oilmen maintain that Mr. Rudman's optimism should be taken with a few grains of salt. He can afford to be enthusiastic, they say, because he scored a remarkable coup in 1981, at the height of the oil boom, by selling off all his producting wells to the Petro-Lewis Corporation. In a debt-ridden industry, he is one of the last of an endangered species, a cash-rich oilman. He said he is investing millions of his own dollars in approximately 70 wells this year.

Mr. Rudman bases his optimism on the lowered costs of drilling wells in a depressed industry. With the number of active oil rigs in the United States down to 839 from a peak of 4,530 in 1981, rigs can sell for 10 cents on the dollar. Promoters who once charged fat fees for oil deals are now desperate for investors. Most of the wells that could be drilled for $1 million to $3 million a few years back can be done for half that now. Mr. Rudman figures he has more chance of getting in on a deal that could turn into a major find, and he is certain the current carnage in the industry will eventually lead to shortages and substantially higher prices.

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Forbes Suggests The Same Thing

Forbes suggests America's oil boom just taking a breather:

Pioneer Natural Resources is a bellwether company, a Platonic ideal of all that is possible for America’s oil industry. Pioneer has the strongest balance sheet of any of the American independents with $2.5 billion in cash against about $3 billion in debt. It has built up a massive 800,000-acre position in the Permian Basin, a region that has emerged as the single best oil province in America, where the rigs are still running even at these prices.

Finding oil is not the issue for Pioneer, it’s how to get it out of the ground as quickly and efficiently as possible. The company figures it has about 12,000 drilling locations in the Permian, enough for about 90 years of drilling at its current pace. Pioneer’s balance sheet is strong enough and its land is good enough that even as America’s oil industry has flatlined (with U.S. oil output down to 9 million bpd from a high of 9.6 million) Pioneer has managed to keep growing its output, which at 222,000 barrels of oil (and gas equivalent) per day is about 10% higher than a year ago.

The company, as I wrote in this late 2014 profile, will be a survivor.

Pioneer reported impressive first quarter earnings yesterday and its stock is up 6% in Tuesday morning action. Sure the company had a big net loss, bringing in just $685 million in revenue against $1.1 billion of expenses. But when you back out that pesky stuff like $350 million in non-cash depreciation expense, Pioneer pretty much broke even. It is still running 12 rigs (down from 30 in 2014), and has gotten its cash costs down to about $14 per BOE.

Hess With Three Producing Wells Completed -- April 28, 2016

NDSU quarterback sensation goes #2 in NFL draft, to Philadelphia Eagles. Story here:

The Eagles selected North Dakota State's Carson Wentz because they believe he can be their quarterback of the future. The present, they said, belongs to Sam Bradford.

"Sam's our quarterback," Eagles executive vice president of football operations Howie Roseman said Thursday night. "We've been clear about that."

The Eagles made a total of three trades to move up from No. 13 overall in the NFL draft to No. 2. After the trade to No. 2 last week, Bradford skipped voluntary workouts. The Eagles were informed that Bradford wanted to be traded and would not participate in May organized team activities.

"Sam is the leader of this football team," coach Doug Pederson said. "He's the quarterback. I've said all along that he's the quarterback. He's the guy we want leading this charge. When he comes back, he's welcome with open arms."

Barring a trade or injury, Wentz isn't even expected to dress for a game in the regular season.

Wentz's climb to the top of the draft was as improbable as the Eagles'. He started just 23 games in his career at North Dakota State, a powerhouse at the NCAA Football Championship Subdivision level. But the 6-foot-5, 237-pound Wentz impressed teams with his physical tools and arm strength.

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Back to the Daily Report

Active rigs:

	4/28/2016	04/28/2015	04/28/2014	04/28/2013	04/28/2012
Active Rigs	29	86	185	187	209

Wells coming off confidential list Friday:

• 31949, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, Glovatsky 145-98-24D-13-1HS, Little Knife, no production data,
• 32120, SI/NC, EOG, Austin 438-2635H, Parshall, no production data,

No new permits.

Wells coming off confidential list today:

• 18664, 746, Whiting, Eide 5-13H, Truax, t81/10; cum 230K 2/16;
• 28239, EXP, Petro-Hunt, Dolezal 145-97-20C-17-5H,
• 30951, drl, EOG, Van Hook 70-1411H,
• 31109, EXP, SHD, Charging Wildcat 22-31H,
• 31110, EXP, SHD, War Eagle 22-31H,
• 31111, EXP, SHD, Luke Neset 22-31H,
• 31136, EXP, Newfield, Jorgenson Federal 148-96-10-15-11H,
• 31137, EXP, Newfield, Jorgenson Federal 148-96-10-15-1H,
• 31138, EXP, Newfield, Jorgenson Federal 148-96-10-15-4HLW,

Whiting renewed a Loomer permit, #31151.

Three (3) producing wells completed:

• 29128, 977, Hess, BW-Johnson-149-99-1003H-4, Cherry Creek, t3/16; cum 6K after 3 days;
• 29129, 1,266, Hess, BW-Johnson 149-99-1003H-5, Cherry Creek, t4/16; cum --
• 31477, 311, Hess, BL-Davidson-156-96-3526H-8, Beaver Lodge, t3/16 cum --

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Texas Wild Flowers -- 2016

Set #3

Speaking Of Hitting A Soft Patch, It Appears Venezuela Has Hit A Pothole The Size Of Bernie Sanders' Home -- April 28, 2016

Forbes is reporting that Venezuela does not have enough money to buy the ink and paper needed to print its own currency.

Venezuela ... tic, tic, tic ....

Soft Patch: President Obama -- The First President In History Who Never Delivered A Single Year Of 3.0%+ Economic Growth; Home Ownership Rate Third Lowest In History -- April 28, 2016

Updates

Later, 8:12 p.m. Central Time: as the stories keep rolling in on the economy, and President Obama trying to explain what Americans are missing and where to place the blame, I looked up the quote, "the emperor has now clothes" on the internet, and saw a photograph of the president playing golf. Just saying.

 

Original Post

 

I knew the "Lost Decade" was bad; I did not know it was this bad. The gatewaypundit is reporting and if it weren't for Drudge, I would not have known. Thank you, Mr Drudge.

On Thursday the Commerce Department announced that the US economy expanded at the slowest pace in two years. GDP growth rose at an anemic 0.5% rate after a paltry 1.4% fourth quarter advance. 

Ronald Reagan brought forth an annual real GDP growth of 3.5%. 

Barack Obama will be lucky to average a 1.55% GDP growth rate. 

This ranks Obama as the fourth worst presidency on record. Barack Obama will be the only U.S. president in history who did not deliver a single year of 3.0%+ economic growth. 

If the economy continues to perform below 2.67% GDP growth rate this year, President Barack Obama will leave office with the fourth worst economic record in US history.

Today's GDP report.

The news just keeps getting worse. With record low rates and huge emphasis on home ownership under this administration, home ownership rate is now the third lowest on record.  MarketWatch reports. As noted often, it's hard to make a mortgage payment when government mandates result in $2,000/month in health care premiums. 

Bull's Eye: Definition Of Irony: One Of Only Two States Since 2007 To Increase Coal Demand Also Killed The Keystone -- April 28, 2016

I can't make this stuff up.

One of only two states to increase coal demand since 2007 killed the Keystone -- what a great legacy.

Look at Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania: ground zero for shale natural gas. (A reminder to the voters in Pennsylvania and Ohio, often considered to be swing states: both Bernie and Hillary want to ban fracking. I assume that would take us back to Angela Merkel and coal.)

I could be wrong, but I assume the "pipeline activity" explains Georgia's huge decline in coal demand, also. California seems to be a bit slow to get the memo despite all the talk. Even Iowa, with all its wind fame, isn't among the top five.

Mark Perry On The Importance Of The US Becoming A Major LNG Exporter -- Apriil 28, 2016

I apologize if this is a repeat. It seems I've posted / linked this before. Whatever. It's worth posting several times. LOL. Mark Perry has a great blog post on the importance of the US becoming a major LNG exporter. From his op-ed:

The shale revolution, however, has been a game-changer. To be sure, there are those who have yet to grasp the consequences of this change.

Studies from the U.S. Department of Energy as well as various think tanks show LNG exports as economically beneficial to the nation, not only providing thousands of construction jobs, but incentives for increased domestic gas production. All of this promises to be a boon to gas producers, rig hands, royalty owners and energy-rich states like Pennsylvania and Texas. Meanwhile, the notion that the price of natural gas might spiral upward as exports grow has been debunked.

Despite already growing demand for natural gas – gas now accounts for the largest fuel share of our electric power generation – the inflation-adjusted price of gas is at a 25-year low. The resources unlocked in shale are vast – 2,200 trillion cubic, roughly a 90-year supply. It’s time to put the ghosts of our energy past to bed. We should fully embrace the economic, environmental and geopolitical benefits that will come from the export of natural gas.

For one thing, any increase in global competition for LNG sales will benefit consumers worldwide. While the old dominant gas exporters -- think of Qatar, Malaysia, Russia and Iran – must adjust to the new reality, gas-importing countries, many of which are our political allies, are rejoicing. Natural gas prices in much of the world have been pegged to oil prices and, consequently, have been very high.

Just two years ago, LNG prices in Asia were four or five times what they were in the U.S. The introduction of U.S. gas exports will help soften global gas prices in the long-term and likely stimulate demand. A more robust LNG market might lure some buyers away from cheaper but much dirtier coal.

China, in particular, seems to realize the danger to public health from its heavy reliance on coal for electricity generation. In December, Beijing issued its first red alert over air pollution, shutting down schools and requiring drivers to only use their cars on alternate days. Although China is building dozens of emission-free nuclear plants and investing heavily in wind and solar power, backing off of coal is a gargantuan task. China singlehandedly consumes as much coal as the rest of the world combined.

To his credit, Mark did not mention that both Hillary and Bernie want to "keystone" fracking. 

MillionDollarWay Milestone: 20,000 Published Posts -- April 28, 2016

This is worthy as the lead note in the 20,000th post: ten reasons the entire country should be thankful for North Dakota at this link.

I was aware of all of them except for #10: Cream of Wheat.

I am most impressed the compilers included Bobcat, perhaps the most well-known name in small equipment.

I'm not necessarily surprised that #9 was included, but I might have added that with two legs of the nuclear triad based in North Dakota, one can argue that the state played a major role in the fall of the USSR, perhaps the biggest "event" in modern history, perhaps even bigger than WWII, but that comes close to comparing apples (a shooting war) with oranges (a non-shooting war, fortunately). With North Dakota now leading in the nascent drone industry, I would replace #9 with Aviation and National Defense.

But again, that's just me.

Phil Jackson might require his own category when it comes to the State of North Dakota. And, then, of course, it's a bit of a stretch but Katie Ledecky's heritage extends back to the pioneer days of North Dakota. 

In case the link breaks, these are the top ten reasons (and my comments in parentheses) why these compilers feel the nation needs to thank North Dakota:

#1: breadbasket of the world
#2: tons of other agriculture (and honey)
#3: energy -- oil and coal; (will eventually lead in wind for what that is worth; not much in my book)
#4: conservation to include the American bison
#5: Theodore Roosevelt's presidency and heritage of national parks
#6: Bobcat equipment and machinery
#7: Mr Bubble: one of the first affordable bubble baths products on the market; prior to Mr Bubble, bubble baths were considered a luxury
#8: a dent in the national unemployment rate (dynamic); perhaps could be replaced by Bank of North Dakota as an example of how banking at state level can be done
#9: some famous names in entertainment; despite forgetting to mention Angie Dickinson (born in Kulm, ND) and Bobby Vee (Fargo), I would still replace this category with "aviation and national defense" and move it to #5 or higher on the list [the only "celebrities mentioned were Peggy Lee, Lawrence Welk, and Josh Duhamel as having been born and raised in North Dakota].
#10: Cream of Wheat

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Screenshot Documenting 20,000th Post

This Blog Was Started Sometime In 2009

Averaging 9 Stand-Alone Posts Daily

This, of course, is #20,001.

Soft Patch -- April 28, 2016

Thursday's weekly energy tweets and energy news (not much):

• Brent price for calendar 2017 settled above $50/bbl for first time since early December, 2015. 
• Oil jumps to 2016 highs as dollar drops on "Fed" decision to hold rates.

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Idle Chatter

Nothing About The Bakken

Updates

Later, 11:44 a.m. Central Time: how bad is it? I knew it was bad; I did not know it was this bad.

Original Post

 

With regard to the past six years, there seem(s) to be two constants:

• the use of "soft patch" used to describe US economy
• an ever-worsening Mideast situation

I was reminded of that when I came across this post from 2011 -- from 2011 -- pretty amazing:
"Don't Blow It" -- The Lost Decade -- No Clue -- "Soft Patch"

With the recent announcement that the most risk-averse administration in years will send more troops to Syria to fight the JV team there is no need to re-plow plowed ground.

But I was surprised to see that phrase "soft patch" back in 2011. I had forgotten all about it. And, then, earlier this week, the Fed says the same thing, the US is, again, to coin a phrase, "in a soft patch."

From the linked post:

August 3, 2011: Signs of a double-dip recession have emerged -- Meredith Whitney, anaylst. CNBC considers her highly credible.

August 2, 2011: the "double dip" recession has begun, as reported by the president's cable news station, MSNBC.

July 29, 2011: This update is being written just as the government reported a most anemic GDP number: 1.3.   But even scarier, if that's possible: 1Q11 GDP was revised to 0.4 -- almost a contraction in growth.

This is another update to the June 19, 2011, posting.

I think the June 22, 2011, update was particularly prescient: When government officials start using the phrase "a soft patch" on a more regular basis, one can assume that experts acknowledge there is a better than 50/50 chance that we will fall into a double-dip recession. My hunch is that if we fall back into a recession we will not know it until about six months after the fact.

The Lost Decade: US Economy Expanded At Slowest Pace In Two Years -- April 28, 2016

Updates

Later, 11:45 a.m. Central Time: in the original post, there is a link to an article in which President Obama thoughtfully discusses why Americans don't feel economically "better" during his administration. He blamed it on the GOP. He might want to look in the mirror and note he is the first American president in history to not preside over one year of 3.0%+ economic growth. That's why Americans don't feel "better" economically. It has nothing to do with the GOP. It has to do with reality. 

Later, 10:33 a.m. Central Time: it appears the good folks over at AP/Yahoo!Finance read the blog. Just hours after posting the note below, we get a repeat of a mainstream media story that was reported earlier this month: significant premium hikes in ObamaCare coming. With the way the nation's GDP is calculated, these increased (or as they say, "significant") health care premiums, will help move US GDP from 0.5% in 1Q16 to a healthy and sustainable 2.6% in 1Q17.

How much you all wanna bet the new health care premiums will not be released until after the November election? From the article:

For example in Virginia, a state that reports early, nine insurers returning to the HealthCare.gov marketplace are seeking average premium increases that range from 9.4 percent to 37.1 percent. Those initial estimates filed with the state may change. (Hopefully.)

I would sure hate to live in the state where premiums are expected to increase by 30% but, wow, what a boost in GDP!

Original Post

MarketWatch is reporting that the business community has slashed investment to lowest amount since the Great Recession. 

Many economists doubt business investment will show much strength in 2016. A tepid global economic scene and a tumultuous U.S. presidential election marked by heavy anti-corporate rhetoric appears to have made business executives more cautious.

The sour global outlook was evident in U.S. trade relations. Exports slid 2.6% in the first quarter, while imports rose 0.2%. A bigger trade deficit subtracts from GDP.

The saving grace, once again, were consumers. They boosted spending by a modest 1.9%, though much of the increase was on utilities and health care. Outlays on big-ticket items such as new cars, TVs and appliances, known as durable goods, fell 1.6%. 

Talk about crazy economics. The analysts tell us "the saving grace were consumers" because much of the increase in GDP (as dismal as it was) was because Americans are spending more on health care. Hmmm....I guess if the price of gasoline went up to $6.00/gallon that would also help the GDP numbers, as Americans would be spending more of their income to pay for gasoline.

And an increase spent on utilities was seen as a "saving grace"? LOL. With exceptionally inexpensive natural gas and coal, the cost of electricity and utilities should be going down. But fortunately, due to wind and solar and state and federal mandates and bureaucratic regulations, the cost of utilities is going up for Americans, and that, apparently, prevented the US GDP from going negative. Wow.

Bloomberg reports:

The U.S. economy expanded in the first quarter at the slowest pace in two years as American consumers reined in spending and companies tightened their belts in response to weak global financial conditions and a plunge in oil prices.

Gross domestic product rose at a 0.5 percent annualized rate after a 1.4 percent fourth-quarter advance, Commerce Department data showed Thursday. The increase was less than the 0.7 percent median projection in a Bloomberg survey and marked the third straight disappointing start to a year.

The Fed noted a "soft patch" yesterday.

And the jobless numbers?

Applications rose 9,000 to 257,000. Four-week average dropped to 256,000, a 42-year low, due to anomalous data either last week or a couple of weeks ago.

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Economy Expands At Slowest Rate In Two Years -- Despite Longest Bull Market In History (?)

Obama: The GOP Is To Blame For Americans Feeling Nervous About The Economy

The New York Times Magazine's feature article is President Obama's theory why many voters feel left behind. I can't wait to read this. Ah, yes, here it is: blame it on the GOP.

“And if you have a political party — in this case, the Republicans — that denies any progress and is constantly channeling to their base, which is sizable, say, 40 percent of the population, that things are terrible all the time, then people will start absorbing that.”

And, then in the very next paragraph, perhaps this is what 40 percent of the population knows:

But as Obama also acknowledged, the public anger about the economy is not without empirical basis. 

A large swath of the nation has dropped out of the labor force completely, and the reality for the average American family is that its household income is $4,000 less than it was when Bill Clinton left office. 

Economic inequality, meanwhile, has only grown worse, with the top 1 percent of American households taking in more than half of the recent gains in income growth. 

“Millions and millions and millions and millions of people look at that pretty picture of America he painted and they cannot find themselves in it to save their lives,” Clinton himself said of Obama’s economy in March, while on the campaign trail for his wife. 

“People are upset, frankly; they’re anxiety-ridden, they’re disoriented, because they don’t see themselves in that picture.”

Despite a long, long section on ObamaCare, there was no actual analysis of the program, which by all accounts, is a huge failure.

The "Keystone" was not mentioned. Or the coal industry. Or the US shale oil and natural gas revolution. 

I guess the Obama apologists are starting early, knowing that historians will not be kind to this administration.

COP Beats By 10 Cents; Ford Posts Record Results -- April 28, 2016

COP beats by 10 cents. Press release. A loss of $1.18/share. ConocoPhillips lowers capex plan by $700M in second cut this year.

WSJ: Net income more than doubles amid continued sales growth in the U.S. light-vehicle market

Ford Motor Co. delivered record results in the first-quarter amid strong truck sales, with net income more than doubling in the period and an operating margin in the core North American unit rivaling those returned by high-end luxury brands.

Ford reported net income of $2.5 billion, or 61 cents a share, up from $1.2 billion, or 29 cents a share in the first quarter of 2015, a period negatively affected by short supplies of its biggest money maker, the F-150 truck. On an operating basis, the company earned 68 cents per share.

The results beat analyst expectations of 48 cents a share. The company’s closely watched North American operating margin equaled 12.9%, an all-time record during the three-month span, and far higher than the 8.7% at rival General Motors Co. 

This is a bigger story than the Facebook story on so many levels.

Active rigs:

	4/28/2016	04/28/2015	04/28/2014	04/28/2013	04/28/2012
Active Rigs	27	86	185	187	209

RBN Energy: US gulf coast propane exports back down.

The prospects for an ever-expanding boom in propane exports from the U.S. Gulf Coast are dimming, even as export volumes stand at near-record levels and as new export capacity continues to come online. Why? It comes down to supply and demand.  With oil and NGL prices at today’s levels, propane production is leveling off, not rising, and U.S. Gulf Coast domestic demand for propane will be increasing—from new propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants and propane’s use in ethylene steam crackers—at the same time that export volumes out of the East Coast are quadrupling.  In today’s blog we consider the possibility that what goes up must come down.

There’s a Woody Allen quote that’s relevant here: “If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans.”

Not so long ago, the general expectation was that through the latter half of the 2010s, the U.S. would be awash in ethane, propane and other natural gas liquids (NGLs). To take advantage of these plentiful (and presumably inexpensive) supplies, petrochemical companies planned ethane-only ethylene steam crackers and PDH units, and midstream companies planned NGL pipelines and export terminals to expedite the delivery of NGLs to international markets, including increasing amounts of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG, mostly propane with some butane) and previously unheard of waterborne ethane exports. 

The thinking behind all this planning–and building—was that the new, domestic NGL consumers (the ethane-based steam crackers and the PDH units) and the export market would absorb all those “surplus” NGLs and keep NGL markets in near-perfect balance—the sweet spot of moderate prices and healthy demand. Well, it is now looking like things might not work out as planned.